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Presidential Election 2016: Polls vs Betting Markets

Clinton has regained some momentum with odds of winning jumping from 70% to 75% on the betting markets:    • Leaving Cert Maths: Numbers 4 - Areas...   This is not big enough to break a trend so the direction is unclear. Looks like a 50% fibonacci retracement which is healthy. The Polls are still within error: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epol... The most recent one giving Trump the lead BUT more have clinton in the lead than Trump and the average is within error so it's a coin toss. The No Toss Up has Clinton in the lead but it is still all down to Florida since if just that swings to Trump then he wins and that is too close to call. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epol... Finally we look at Polls vs Betting since polls are too close to call while betting/prediction markets have Clinton in the lead: https://www.google.ie/url?sa=t&rct=j&... In this paper we find that betting/prediction markets do not out perform polls. They were better in the early days when polls were developing and not yet scientific but since then polls are best? There is though the issue of minorities which talked about earlier and how polls in English only did not get accurate results and differ from those given in Spanish as well to the latino community, for example. Those tends to show that the real polls were more for Clinton than the ones in English only. So there is the possibility that the polls have a bias and are suggesting that things are closer than they really are. We just have to wait and see. The last election was equal from polls but were 3% in favour of Obama actually due to this effect? I would have thought that the polls would have adjusted and taken this into account though that doesn't seem to be the case. So I don't know what was done in most polls? That would match polls to the betting markets if there is a 3% undercount of minorities and basically 3% incorrectly added to Trump.