Improving Your Investment Process | The One Thing | Real Vision™ скачать в хорошем качестве

Improving Your Investment Process | The One Thing | Real Vision™

Give a man a fish, and he eats for a day; teach a man to fish, and he eats for a lifetime. On this week’s The One Thing, master angler AK shows investors how crucial process is in achieving sustained investing success. Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe Watch the full video by starting your 14-day free trial here: https://rvtv.io/2TG1tMB About The One Thing: AK brings a fresh spin to the world of finance. Often pulling from Real Vision content, each week, he dishes on what recent event or insight rises to the level of being "the one thing" that matters. About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ Improving Your Investment Process | The One Thing | Real Vision™    / realvisiontelevision   Transcript: If you're watching Real Vision, then you're probably here to improve your investment process, right? Well what does that even mean? Because there are so many different experts that come on Real Vision with different strategies. They invest in different asset classes. So eventually you start wondering, who sure I copy? I mean, who do I follow? Well maybe the answer is no one. Maybe we all need to develop our own process and do our own homework. But then the next question is, where do we start? Well that's what we're going to be talking about in this episode of Real Vision's The One Thing. What's going on investors? AK Here. Recently Keith McCullough of Hedgeye sat down with Raoul Pal to talk about how he arrived at his process. 2009 was where I just ignored my own process. Because I just thought, the smaller probability outcome is going to be the one that happens, which is a dumb thing to do, right. You're betting on the really small probability. But that's what I did, and I screwed it up. How has your business evolved? And how's your process, more importantly, evolved? Yeah, the two big components of my process have never been more robust. So I have the fundamental research process, which we call our GIP model or Growth Inflation Policy Model. Effectively get the rates of change in growth and inflation rate, and you're going to get the forward behavior of the policymaker right. My outlook is, in Q4, we said quad four in Q4. It's our four quarter model. Quad four is when you have growth and inflation slowing at the same time. I said if that turns out to be accurate, and the data continues to rinse and repeat, the negative rate of change growth and inflation, the Fed will not only not be raising interest rates, the last rate hike will be into a slowdown, and then we'll be talking about falling interest rates. So this clip was great because it shows that even when you have a robust process like Raul does, sometimes even the best stray away from it and end up betting on, as he said, low probability events. Keith then goes into the framework he uses where he breaks down the economy into different quadrants. And then from there he drills down into specific positions. He also has an interesting approach to his macro outlook, which is what he's famous for. The way he actually drives that outlook is by analyzing the business results of global companies. So in that sense, he's going from bottom up. Started to build a global macro overlay to actually analyzing companies from a bottom up perspective, which was easier with global companies like Nike, for example, or some of the big ones that I started to understand better, earlier. But it all started with just being an analyst. I started as an analyst. And now today, like, I guess I moonlight as a macro strategist. But most of my-- all my macro calls are born out of that same analytical process. That's 20 years-- we're almost 20 years later, but I've really just applied most of my fundamental learnings as a bottom up analyst to my top down view. And it's certainly not a qualitative one. It's how I quantify it, like this whole rate of change process that we've built and what not. For another example of how to build an investment thesis, Kyle Bass, the legendary hedge fund manager sat down with Real Vision to give his thoughts. It's easy to maintain a conviction. It's harder to maintain investors. Right. Right.