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Load Forecasting: Methods, Training, and Evaluation

'Load Forecasting: Methods, Training, and Evaluation' synthesizes the core concepts from a comprehensive guide on electricity load forecasting, with a specific focus on the complex and relatively immature field of Low Voltage (LV) level forecasting. The central thesis is that forecasting for LV systems, critical for the future of smart grids, requires advanced techniques to manage the inherent volatility and irregularity of demand from small consumer groups. 'Load Forecasting: Methods, Training, and Evaluation' outlines a complete, data-science-driven process for developing robust forecast models. This process begins with meticulous data preparation, analysis, and feature engineering, moves through the selection and training of appropriate models, and culminates in rigorous verification and evaluation. A key distinction is drawn between point forecasts, which provide a single estimate, and probabilistic forecasts (quantiles, densities, ensembles), which are presented as essential for quantifying the uncertainty prevalent in LV systems.