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Ukrainian military expert and retired colonel Roman Svitan stated that a new Russian offensive from Belarus is highly unlikely and would be swiftly neutralized if attempted. In an interview with Glavred, he emphasized that Ukraine has heavily fortified its northern border and stationed tens of thousands of troops in the region to deter any aggression. "The Russians won’t risk such an operation, and we won’t even let them try. Our defenses are strong, and if Russian forces even approach the border, they’ll be destroyed while still on Belarusian soil," Svitan said. He warned that if any movement is detected from Belarus toward Ukraine, Ukrainian forces are prepared to launch precision strikes on key Belarusian infrastructure. Targets would include major economic assets such as Belaruskali, the Mozyr Oil Refinery, Naftan, and critical railway systems -including traction substations and overpasses. "These facilities could be wiped out in hours," he claimed. Svitan pointed out that the Mozyr refinery, for example, is only about 40 kilometers from the border - well within range of Ukraine’s Smerch rocket systems. "One salvo and it’s gone," he said, adding that Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is well aware of the consequences, and is unlikely to allow his country to become a launching pad for further Russian aggression. He also downplayed the significance of reported Russian-Belarusian military drills scheduled for the fall, calling them psychological tactics aimed at unsettling Ukraine’s European allies. According to Svitan, Russia may be using this narrative to deter potential peacekeeping deployments along the Belarus-Ukraine border - deployments that could free up Ukrainian troops for operations in the east. For context, about 14 new military units, including Belarusian forces and Wagner Group fighters, have recently been formed in Belarus. They may be intended to support Russian operations near Russia's Kursk region.