Скачать с ютуб ChanceTALK 20 - Bayesian analysis can be used to calculate the probability of success в хорошем качестве

ChanceTALK 20 - Bayesian analysis can be used to calculate the probability of success

ChanceTALK 20 - Sam Savage and Alex Sidorenko break risk management myths. Watch all previous episodes at    • ChanceTALK - new age for quantitative...   TLDR: Bayesian analysis can be used to calculate the probability of success in a variety of scenarios, from Tom Cruise's mission to save the world to accurately detecting a low prevalence outcome. 00:00 💥 Tom Cruise leads a double attack to destroy a nuclear reactor using Bayesian analysis to adjust laser-guided weapons accuracy based on 10,000 trials. 04:11 🤔 Tom Cruise's mission to save the world is a hypothetical example of how Bayesian analysis can be used to calculate the probability of success. 07:43 🤔 With a faulty sprinkler system, Bayesian analysis shows a 4.7% chance of a chemical plant explosion if laser 2 is down 10% of the time. 10:51 🤒 98% chance of testing positive for SHND if you have it, 98% chance of testing negative if you don't, so get tested! 16:15 🤔 Only 1/3 of those who test positive for a condition actually have it, so false positives can lead to unnecessary treatments. 20:06 🎯 Bayesian analysis is about calculating the probability of a dart landing in a given region. 26:14 ✅ ️ A Sit math model was successfully used to accurately detect a low prevalence outcome, as demonstrated by a West Point professor's Capstone project. 33:18 📈 7% chance of hitting Target one given Laser one is down; use URLs to increase visibility & success. Summary for    • ChanceTALK 20 - Bayesian analysis can...   by www.eightify.app ChanceTALK - Alex Sidorenko and Sam Savage discuss latest in risk management. Join us to discuss your risk management concerns and share some of the latest ideas in quant risk management. Weekly webcasts where we break risk management misconceptions, share new techniques and ideas and answer your risk management questions live. Join the channel to stay up to date on risk management.