Mini-Tutorial 5: Rethinking Defense Planning: Are We Buying Weapons and Forces? Or Security? скачать в хорошем качестве

Mini-Tutorial 5: Rethinking Defense Planning: Are We Buying Weapons and Forces? Or Security?

Leo Blanken, Associate Professor, Defense Analysis Department at the Naval Postgraduate School and Irregular Warfare Initiative Fellow (West Point Modern War Institute). Jason Lepore, Professor and Chair of the Economics Department at the Orfalea College of Business, CalPoly, San Luis Obispo and a Visiting Professor at the Defense Analysis Department, Naval Postgraduate School. We propose a framework to enable an updated approach for modeling national security planning decisions. The basis of our approach is to treat national security as the multi-stage production of a service provided by the state to foster a nation’s welfare. The challenge in analyzing this activity stems from the fact that this a complex process that is conducted by a vast number of actors across four discrete stages of production: budgeting, planning, coercion, warfighting. We argue that decisions made at any given stage of the process that fail to consider actor incentives at all stages of the process may create serious problems. In this presentation we will present our general Feasible Production Framework approach (a formal framework based on Principal-Agent analysis), paying particular attention to the planning stage of production for this audience. This presentation will highlight the trade-offs in modeling within a narrow “single-stage aperture” versus a holistic “multi-stage aperture.”