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#investorrelations

#investorrelations #capitalmarkets #corporatefinance #corporategovernance #corpgov #accountingandfinance #financialplanningandanalysis #financialprofessionals #investorrelationscareers #investorpresentation #earnings #earningscall #earningsreport #earningsannouncement #ceo #ceoadvisory #ceoadvice #ceoinsights #cfo #cfoadvisory #cfoadvice #cfoinsights #nyse #nasdaq #steverubis #mrinvestorrelations #betweentwoearningscalls #investmentbanking #venturecapital #privateequity #ipo #shareholders #boardofdirectors #shareholderengagement #equityresearch #equitymarkets #wallstreet #investorcalls #shareholdervalue #iro #earningsprep #strategicfinance #boardroomtrust #equitystory #CaptialAllocation #valuationpremium #careers #broadcom $avgo #googlegemini 𝗕𝗲𝘁𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝗧𝘄𝗼 𝗘𝗮𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘀 𝘄/ 𝗠𝗿 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿 𝗥𝗲𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗖𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗦𝘁𝘂𝗱𝘆: 𝗕𝗿𝗼𝗮𝗱𝗰𝗼𝗺 ($𝗔𝗩𝗚𝗢) 𝟰𝗤𝟮𝟱 𝗘𝗮𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 On December 12, 2025, Broadcom shares fell nearly 5.4% (with intraday drops hitting 11%) following its 4Q25 report. Despite delivering a "beat and raise"—exceeding revenue and EPS targets and increasing its dividend by 10%—the market focused on a minor 50-basis-point shift in margin expectations. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘃𝘀. 𝗚𝘂𝗶𝗱𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗣𝗮𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗼𝘅 When a stock trades at a 50x P/E after a long period of outperformance, the "raise" is already baked into the valuation. Investors become hypersensitive to minor changes that suggest a structural shift in the investment thesis. In the case of $AVGOs 4Q25 financial guidance, the issue at hand revolved around a 50-basis point miss on gross margin and adjusted EBITDA guidance. Many will ask why does such a small change have an outsized impact. The professionals will immediately tell you the answer is everything is relative to expectations. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 "𝟱𝟬/𝟱𝟬" 𝗥𝘂𝗹𝗲: 𝟱𝟬 𝗣/𝗘 𝘃𝘀. 𝟱𝟬 𝗕𝗽𝘀 The core lesson in this case study revolves around stretched valuations. A 50 P/E valuation implies perfection. Any minor change in expectations, in this case a 50-basis point change to margin guidance, will create outsized selling pressure on the shares. A stretched valuation + a long upward trajectory in share price + expectations changes lead to the key question for investors of: Is a structural change to the thesis afoot? For $AVGO, the company is signaling that margin compression is not necessarily a miss but a structural aspect of margin mix, as its custom AI racks carry lower margins that the legacy software business 𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝘁𝗼 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗽𝗿𝗲𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲 Executives can apply this situation to their company across three lenses: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗘𝗮𝘀𝘆 𝗙𝗶𝘅: Investors are selling because of a minor NT expectations change and management knows is noise. Stock recovers quickly. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝗲𝗱𝗶𝘂𝗺 𝗙𝗶𝘅 (𝗥𝗲𝗯𝗮𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗴): After a long run of outperformance, any "change"—regardless of magnitude—creates an excuse for institutional investors to rebalance positions. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗛𝗮𝗿𝗱 𝗙𝗶𝘅 (𝗦𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝗵𝗶𝗳𝘁): Selling due to structural change requires a complete overhaul to the thesis and likely a move through a negative comp period in order to reset expectations and recalibrate valuation. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗻𝗱 𝗦𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗮𝗹: Companies use a dividend hike to offset change, but for the most part, investors will see through that action. 𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗟𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 Public company executives need to remember that a 1% drop in margin expectations is more value destructive than a 5% beat on revenue. Always be mindful of how future financial expectations change relative to recent or past performance in order to defend shareholder value.