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Learn about commonalities and unique events within the 10 largest southwestern fires of 2024 and hear a meteorologist explore the fire season outlook and expectations for fire weather behavior in 2025. Recorded on: May 1, 2025 Description: Most frequent-fire forests throughout the Intermountain West have been degraded during the last 150 years and, as a result, are highly susceptible to damaging stand-replacing fires and increased insect and disease epidemics. To track the causes, consequences, and patterns of fire in the Southwest, the Southwest Fire Science Consortium and Forest Stewards Guild compile an annual report on the 10 largest fires of the previous fire season. In this webinar, report author Zander Evans and meteorologist Kerry Jones review the top 10 fires of 2024 and looking ahead to the fire forecast for 2025. The presenters provide historical context for these 2024 fire data, including trends and outliers in the timing, management costs, vegetation, and burn severity, and discuss the fire season outlook and summer weather forecast for the Southwest in 2025. All Southwest Wildfire Season Overviews can be found on the Consortium website at www.swfireconsortium.org/wildfire-season-overview/ Presenters: Dr. Zander Evans, Executive Director with the Forest Stewards Guild; Kerry Jones, Retired - former Meteorologist, Air Quality Smoke, and Water Quality Specialist with the Forest Service. Chapters 0:00 Introductions 1:16 Presentation on 2024 - Looking back at the 2024 Season: Climate, Precipitation, Energy Release Component 4:35 Fires in 2024 18:41 2024 Themes 20:32 Presentation begins on 2025 Fire Season Outlook 22:35 2025 Weather and Trends 44:05 Q&A Additional Resources: National Interagency Coordination Center Fire Weather Outlooks: https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive-... Southwest Coordination Center 7-day fire potential outlooks: https://gacc.nifc.gov/swcc/predictive... Previous years’ fire season overview reports: https://www.swfireconsortium.org/wild... Federal wildfire incident tracking resource: https://inciweb.wildfire.gov/ US Geological Survey resource for evaluating wildfire burn severity: https://burnseverity.cr.usgs.gov/ Example of the ICS-209s program: https://www.nifc.gov/sites/default/fi... Energy Release Component (ERC) charts: https://gacc.nifc.gov/swcc////predict... and https://cales.arizona.edu/climate/SWF... Human ignitions webinar series: https://www.swfireconsortium.org/2025... Publication on Fire in the Sonoran Desert: https://www.swfireconsortium.org/2024... The "I don't have time to watch the full webinar" CHATGPT Video Summary The webinar provided an in-depth look at recent climate conditions, drought status, and fire potential across the U.S. Southwest, focusing on Arizona and New Mexico. Presenters discussed the region’s transition from El Niño to a neutral ENSO phase, the implications for precipitation and drought, and the evolving outlook for the upcoming monsoon season and fire risks. -Climate Extreme and exceptional drought conditions have re-emerged in portions of New Mexico—levels not seen since late 2023 or prior to the wet 2022 monsoon. The December–March period ranked among the driest on record in over 130 years for parts of north and central New Mexico. Snowpack levels have been extremely low, with record-early melt at high-elevation sites like the Santa Fe SNOTEL, which cleared two weeks earlier than ever before. Several regions saw snowpack levels lower than even 2018 and 2006—benchmark drought years. From June onward model forecasts suggest diminishing dryness from west to east and potential for an early or near-normal monsoon onset in southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico by late June or early July. Historical analog years—1967, 2006, and 2017—showed similar spring dryness followed by wet monsoon seasons, offering cautious optimism for summer rainfall. Fire Season Outlook Despite a dry winter, cooler temperatures and intermittent moisture in the coming weeks may temporarily reduce fire risk. However, experts cautioned that this respite could be short-lived; hot, dry weather typically returns by mid- to late May, the region’s most critical fire period. Key Takeaways The Southwest is in a neutral ENSO phase, fostering variable but improving moisture. Extreme drought persists in parts of New Mexico; snowpack is at record lows. Early monsoon onset (late June–early July) is possible, echoing 2006 and 2017 patterns. Fire potential remains elevated through mid-June, though cooler weather offers short-term relief. Long-term, monsoon seasons appear more fragmented, with increasing climate variability influencing fire and drought patterns.