Stocks Set for Record as Retail Data Fuel Fed Bets скачать в хорошем качестве

Stocks Set for Record as Retail Data Fuel Fed Bets

Frances Donald, Chief Economist at RBC, discusses her expectations for this week's economic data, including Wednesday's delayed jobs print and CPI out Friday. Wall Street traders drove stocks toward all-time highs while bond yields fell after weaker-than-estimated retail sales reinforced the case for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year. Bitcoin tumbled. Benchmark 10-year yields dropped to the lowest in about a month, with money markets seeing slightly higher odds of three Fed cuts this year - with two already fully priced in. While the S&P 500 edged only mildly higher after a two-day rally, about 350 of its shares gained. Chipmakers fell following a solid run, but an ETF tracking software firms extended a three-day advance to 9%. US retail sales unexpectedly stalled in December, suggesting consumers provided less firepower for the economy as the year drew to a close. So-called control-group sales — which feed into the government’s calculation of goods spending for gross domestic product — unexpectedly fell 0.1% after a downwardly revised gain in the prior month. “It appears that there was less momentum behind the consumer in the final months of 2025 than previously assumed — a less encouraging departure point for growth estimates in 2026,” noted Vail Hartman at BMO Capital Markets. This report “isn’t a disaster,” but it isn’t a constructive signal either, especially with lingering labor-market concerns and continued volatility across several asset classes, according to Bret Kenwell at eToro. “Tomorrow’s jobs report will be key,” Kenwell said. “A weak print could push sentiment further toward risk-off if growth worries start to build, but a solid print may ease some of those concerns. It would be refreshing for markets to embrace an environment where good news is good and bad news is bad.” The value of retail purchases, unadjusted for inflation, was little changed after a 0.6% gain in November, Commerce Department data showed Tuesday. Excluding auto dealers and gasoline stations, sales were also flat. With the weaker-than-expected core retail sales, fourth-quarter GDP estimates will get trimmed, said veteran Wall Street strategist Peter Boockvar. “Consumer spending has finally caught up with consumer sentiment, and not in a good way,” said Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management. For months, consumers have been complaining about the cost of everything – and yet they kept spending, he said. However, the latest data show that consumers are no longer relentlessly doing that, he noted. “To the extent that the labor market holds up and consumers see more cash in their pockets from all of the pro-cyclical measures, then the economy can keep growing,” Zaccarelli said. “But if this is a more permanent change in spending patterns then it could be the canary in the coalmine that signals a more serious slowdown.” The weaker-than-expected retail sales data for December won’t be enough to spoil the fourth quarter, according to Thomas Ryan at Capital Economics.  “But together with the likely weakness of spending in January amid extreme winter weather in most of the country, it leaves consumption growth on track to slow sharply this quarter,” he said. The latest news on consumer spending did little to change the outlook for another rate cut, still priced in the Fed funds futures market for the next such move at the June policy meeting, according to Gary Schlossberg at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. “We still expect looming tax refunds and windfall gains in the stock market to rekindle retail sales and other consumer spending in coming months,” he added. Fed Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said interest rates could be on an extended hold while officials evaluate incoming economic data. -------- Watch Bloomberg Radio LIVE on YouTube Weekdays 7am-6pm ET WATCH HERE: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF Follow us on X:   / bloombergradio   Subscribe to our Podcasts: Bloomberg Daybreak: http://bit.ly/3DWYoAN Bloomberg Surveillance: http://bit.ly/3OPtReI Bloomberg Intelligence: http://bit.ly/3YrBfOi Balance of Power: http://bit.ly/3OO8eLC Bloomberg Businessweek: http://bit.ly/3IPl60i Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app: Apple CarPlay: https://apple.co/486mghI Android Auto: https://bit.ly/49benZy Visit our YouTube channels: Bloomberg Podcasts:    / bloombergpodcasts   Bloomberg Television:    / @markets   Bloomberg Originals:    / bloomberg   Quicktake:    / @bloombergquicktake