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Quantifying Nature-Related Risks and Opportunities.

Quantifying Nature-Related Risks and Opportunities: a Novel Metric for Assessing Ecosystem Integrity and its Economic Impact Authors: Benedetta Falsetti, Giacomo Novelli, and Stefano Tripodi (speaker), Prometeia Moderator: Amsalu Woldie Yalew, CMCC Abstract Growing recognition of the intertwined nature of climate-related risks and ecosystem health has shifted the focus of economic and financial agents from climate change alone to a broader consideration of ecosystem integrity. In response to this need, we introduce the Ecosystem Condition Index (ECI), a novel metric designed to assess ecosystem integrity by integrating key ecological indicators such as species abundance, forest landscape integrity, and the presence of threatened species. This metric provides a detailed assessment of ecosystem health across a 1km x 1km grid. Our empirical analysis investigates the relationship between the ECI, and agricultural Gross Value Added (GVA) in France, Italy, and Germany, uncovering a significant negative correlation between ECI loss and GVA, especially in regions experiencing ecosystem degradation. These findings underscore the critical role of ecosystem integrity in sustaining agricultural productivity and offer empirical support for integrating ecosystem condition into economic models. This innovative approach provides policymakers with a robust economic rationale for conserving natural capital, addressing both nature-related and climate-related risks, and ensuring a sustainable balance between economic growth and environmental stewardship. About the presenter: Stefano Tripodi is a Senior Economist at Prometeia SPA, part of the Economic Forecast and Analysis group. He has a PhD in Economics obtained from Copenhagen Business School and prior to joining Prometeia, he worked as Resident Researcher at NOVAFRICA. His current research focuses on the link between nature and economics and the study of nature-related risks.

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