Behavioural Data Science Seminar Series: Chengwei Liu on Skill versus Luck скачать в хорошем качестве

Behavioural Data Science Seminar Series: Chengwei Liu on Skill versus Luck

On January 22, 2021 Dr Chengwei Liu (Associate Professor at the ESMT Berlin) led a discussion on #Skill versus #Luck in a variety of contexts at the #Turing #BehaviouralDataScience Seminar Series. Performance metrics are all around us and usually higher #performance is assumed to indicate superior future performance. If the correlation between past and future performance is positive such a #heuristic may work well even if past performance is an imperfect #predictor of future performance. However, recent theoretical work has demonstrated that statistical regression effects can also lead to a “less-is-more” effect where expected future performance is a decreasing function of past performance for some performance ranges, which would violate the higher-is-better heuristic. We empirically test whether #lessismore effects occur in 4 domains, using 8 datasets and 3.4 million actor-performances altogether. All datasets show strong and non-linear regression effects. The presence of less-is-more effects presents a more nuanced role of the impact of luck on performances and suggests an alternative source of #strategic opportunities. Connect to Chengwei via: His webpage: https://faculty-research.esmt.berlin/... LinkedIn:   / chengwei-liu-7b39b99   Twitter: @ChengweiLiu Google website: https://sites.google.com/view/chengwe... Chengwei's recent book on Luck: https://www.amazon.com/Chengwei-Liu/e...