Introduction to the Death Model скачать в хорошем качестве

Introduction to the Death Model

This is a brief introduction to our manuscript "Global analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic using simple epidemiological models", that can be found @ https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.06742.pdf. We have been monitoring the evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic, since its origins in Wuhan (China), for many countries where Covid-19 spread dangerously. In the process, we have developed new epidemiological models based on the well-known Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model. These extensions to the SIR model are based on death cases, which are confirmed by governments regularly throughout the world. These models have become of great interest and they are part of news and media. Everyone wants to know what to expect in the near future, regarding the exponential phase, flattening of the curve, pandemic peak, end of the pandemic. It is also crucial to consider the limitations of model predictions in this very complicated system. This video was made 24 May when statistics in South Africa were low. It's interesting that we predicted the same number of deaths then and now (24 June).