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Ideology, Idiosyncrasy, and Instability in the American Electorate

Join the Cyber Policy Center on May 28th from Noon–1PM Pacific with speaker David Broockman, Associate Professor at the Travers Department of Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley, for Ideology, Idiosyncrasy, and Instability in the American Electorate. The session will be moderated by Nate Persily co director of the Stanford Cyber Policy Center, and is part of the Spring Seminar Series, a series spanning April through May hosted at the Cyber Policy Center. Scholars have debated to what extent Americans’ views on issues are stable, moderate, and ideological. These questions are crucial for understanding polarization and representation, such as to what extent swing voters hold centrist views on issues or are instead cross-pressured across issues; and to what extent the public supports extreme policies. We illustrate why these questions are linked and the need to address them simultaneously. To address these questions, we present a statistical model which estimates the share of individuals’ expressed views which can be explained by ideology, idiosyncrasy, and instability. In pilot data, we find that these explain roughly similar shares of the variation in Americans’ views, but that these shares vary meaningfully across people. We find that ideology is tightly linked to political knowledge, while idiosyncrasy – not instability – is most linked with expressing extreme views. Finally, we find that few voters who prior work characterizes as moderate have centrist views across most issues, but that they are rather largely cross-pressured, agreeing with each party---and sometimes being more extreme than either party---on different issues.