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The State of the Economy for January 2026

Consumer confidence has plummeted. What does it mean for the economy? The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® fell sharply in January, from 94.2 in December to 84.5. Consumers’ assessment of both current business and labor market conditions, and their short-term outlook of the same, fell by 9.9 and 9.5 points, respectively, to 65.1, well below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead. Write-in responses showed a continuation in references to prices and inflation, oil and gas prices, and food and grocery prices. Mentions of tariffs and trade, politics, and the labor market also rose in January. Join Dana M. Peterson and guest Erin McLaughlin, Senior Economist, to find out what's behind consumers’ thinking and the current state of US trade. For more from The Conference Board: US Consumer Confidence Forecast for the US Economy Global Economic Outlook