CMAF FFT: Forecast Accuracy: Fanciful Aspiration or False Advertising? скачать в хорошем качестве

CMAF FFT: Forecast Accuracy: Fanciful Aspiration or False Advertising?

This is the twelfth webinar in the series of "Friday Forecasting Talks", hosted by Centre for Marketing Analytics and Forecasting of Lancaster University, UK. Follow us on LinkedIn:   / lancastercmaf   on Twitter:   / lancastercmaf​​   CMAF webinars: https://cmaf-fft.lp151.com/​​ Slides from CMAF FFT webinars: https://github.com/lancastercmaf/FFT - Contents of this video ------------------------- 00:00​​ - Introduction 00:37​ - Start of the presentation 02:05 - Accuracy measures for point forecasts 06:25 - MAPE: explanation and issues 09:15 - Ambiguity of the "best" point forecast 14:24 - Don't use MAE on intermittent demand! 16:13 - Quantile forecasts measurement 22:25 - Significance checking 27:09 - Accuracy benchmarks 33:25 - Comments of Robert Fildes 37:33 - Responses of Stephan Kolassa 41:20 - Business targets vs error measures 44:28 - Sensitivity of MSE to outliers 48:48 - How to increase awareness about forecasting 52:13 - Relation between quantiles and coverage of intervals 55:05 - Should the target of forecasting be in winning competitions? 57:01 - Closing remarks by Robert and Stephan The abstract: How do we know our forecasts are good, or at least better than some other forecast? There are many forecast accuracy measures in use, some of which come with unexpected side effects. We will discuss accuracy measures for point forecasts, both for central tendencies and for quantiles as necessary for safety stock and capacity planning, and also touch on external industry forecast accuracy benchmarks and tests for statistical significance. If the participants find this interesting, we will organise a follow-up presentation, which will treat interval and density forecast evaluation as well as (as a bonus) the evaluation of predictive classifications. So, please, leave your feedback after the event. Stephan Kolassa is a Data Science Expert at SAP Switzerland. His responsibilities include the algorithmic, statistical and forecasting aspects of SAP’s retail platform CARAB, from user research across prototyping to training. He also does some academic research on the side, serving as an Honorary Researcher at the Centre for Marketing Analytics and Forecasting at Lancaster University Management School, and as Associate Editor for Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting. Images by https://storyset.com/