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Future of Cross-Strait Relations under a Second Trump Presidency: Taiwan’s Imperatives & Options

The 2024 Taiwanese presidential election resulted in Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) assuming office. Despite holding a majority in the legislature, the opposition coalition has not enjoyed strong support from the public. Lai’s foreign policy largely aligns with his predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen, which emphasizes closer ties with the United States and strengthening connections with New Southbound Policy nations. However, his relations with pro-independence factions introduces uncertainty into domestic policies, potentially providing Beijing with justification for economic or military coercion. The re-election of Donald Trump in the US will mark a shift in U.S.-Taiwan relations, transitioning from an ideologically grounded partnership to one rooted in pragmatic interests. While the incoming US government and the DPP government share common criticisms against the PRC, US support for Taiwan's security will likely bear a more significant cost for Taipei. Taipei needs to credibly signal its commitment to self-defense through defense initiatives and trade concessions, which constraints its policy autonomy. Despite these changes, the triangular deterrence relations among US-Taiwan-China remains largely unchanged. The primary concern for stability in the Taiwan Strait hinges on Washington’s ability to reassure Beijing. Taiwan will remain a flash point in US-China relations, though it may not escalate militarily compared to other contentious issues between the two powers. The seminar will explore the future course of cross-strait relations amid regime change in Taiwan and the USA as well. About the Speaker Ping-Kuei Chen is a professor at the Department of Diplomacy, National Chengchi University, Taiwan. He currently serves as the executive director of In-Service Master Program on Strategy and International Affairs. He also directs the Center for India Studies in the College of International Relations, NCCU. Ping-Kuei Chen received a Ph.D. from the Department of Government and Politics, University of Maryland, College Park. His research interests include conflict studies, security alliance, deterrence, and coercive bargaining. He also has an interest in the governance of fintech issues. In addition to his expertise on US-Taiwan relations, he has also focussed attention to South Asia affairs. About the Chair Ashok K. Kantha is an Honorary Fellow and former Director (2017-22) of the Institute of Chinese Studies, New Delhi; a Distinguished Fellow at Vivekananda International Foundation, New Delhi; and Chair of the Core Group on China, of the Confederation of Indian Industry. A career diplomat, Kantha was Ambassador of India to China, from January 2014 to 2016. Prior to this, he was Secretary (East) at the Ministry of External Affairs in New Delhi with responsibility for about 65 countries in India’s extended neighbourhood. His previous assignments include High Commissioner of India to Sri Lanka and Malaysia, Consul General in Hong Kong, and Deputy Chief of Mission in Kathmandu (Nepal). Earlier, Kantha served in different capacities at Indian Missions in Singapore, China, and the US, and at headquarters in New Delhi. In his diplomatic career spanning over 38 years, Kantha specialized in India’s neighbourhood and Asian affairs, with a particular focus on China. Apart from three assignments in China, he served as Joint Secretary (East Asia) and Director (China) at the Ministry of External Affairs for periods of four years each. He has an advanced certificate in Chinese language from National University of Singapore. Follow ICS on : X (Twitter)-   / ics_delhi   Facebook-   / icsin.delhi   LinkedIn-   / icsdelhi   Instagram-   / icsdelhi