Stocks Will Melt-Up Until April 2025 Crash (Here's Why) | Vincent Deluard скачать в хорошем качестве

Stocks Will Melt-Up Until April 2025 Crash (Here's Why) | Vincent Deluard

Vincent Deluard, director of global macro for StoneX, joins Monetary Matters to share why he thinks there is a perfect storm of macro headwinds that in April to May of 2025 may put a halt to the relentless rise in U.S. stocks. Deluard argues that the lower inflation of 2024 will result in a lower cost-of-living-adjustment (COLA) adjustment for 2025 U.S. government programs such as Social Security. He thinks a strong U.S. dollar could dent corporate profits and that state and local governments plan to actually shrink expenditures in 2025. Deluard, a Frenchman, shares his detailed view on political chaos in France and its macroeconomic consequences. Recorded on December 11, 2024. Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Follow Vincent Deluard on Twitter https://x.com/VincentDeluard Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Timestamps 00:00 Intro 01:21 Bond Market No Longer Pricing "Imaginary" Recessions 09:03 The Case For A Bear Market In Stocks That Begins In April 2025 12:10 Fiscal Shrinkage In 2025 (Coming From State & Local Governments, Not Federal) 15:19 Lagged Impact of Cost-of-Living-Adjustments (COLA) In Social Security 22:13 The Immigration Wave 23:16 Healthcare: Inflation, Labor, and Social Unrest 29:18 Healthcare Doesn't Care About Interest Rates (Sorry Recessionistas) 31:36 The Way Healthcare Inflation (CPI) Is Measured Will Shock You 35:32 The Four Waves of Inflation 39:16 Vincent's Bear Cash For Stocks In Q2 2025, In-Depth 43:57 Trump And Tariffs Likely To Be Chaotic To Markets 45:43 The Trump Impossible Trinity 50:29 Will Inflationary Impact Of Tariffs Be Offset By A Stronger Dollar? 51:35 Vincent's Bear Case on The Euro and EUR/USD 53:16 The European Economic Model Is "Deeply Broken" 57:30 France's Political Crisis, In-Depth 1:14:45 Can A Weak Euro Save Europe? 1:16:14 How To Prepare For A Bear Market In U.S. Stocks #stocks #inflation #recession #health #healthcare #unitedhealthcare