TIMVEST | Vietnam December 2025 Macroeconomic & Stock Market Highlights скачать в хорошем качестве

TIMVEST | Vietnam December 2025 Macroeconomic & Stock Market Highlights

Vietnam closed 2025 on a positive note, with GDP growth reaching 8.0%. Manufacturing activity remained solid, reflected by a December PMI of 53, while accelerated public investment supported construction. The services sector also performed robustly, led by trade, transportation, and a record 21.2 million international tourist arrivals. Despite concerns around potential U.S. tariff risks, FDI disbursement remained resilient at USD27.6bn, up 9.0% y/y, while inflation stayed manageable at 3.5%. Looking into 2026, GDP growth is expected to remain around 8.0% as Vietnam enters a new five-year leadership term with a continued pro-growth policy stance and faster project execution. Infrastructure investment is set to accelerate, with several large-scale projects scheduled to break ground, while stronger public spending and higher personal income tax deductions are expected to support household income and consumer confidence. The VN-Index extended its upward trajectory in December, rising 5.9% and bringing total returns for 2025 to 38.8%. However, gains remained narrowly driven, with Vingroup-related companies accounting for 69% of the total return. Excluding those firms, contribution of the remaining constituents would be 12.0% only, compared with our portfolio’s 14.4% for the year. As highlighted consistently in previous factsheets, we remain cautious on the group as the rally is not supported by fundamentals while its complex ownership structure poses challenges for valuation. Looking ahead to 2026, we expect the market to become more earnings-driven. EPS for the top 100 companies is projected to grow 12.2%, while Vingroup-related firms are expected to contribute only a small share of this growth, highlighting opportunities among overlooked companies with stronger earnings momentum.