#92 How to Make Decision Under Uncertainty, with Gerd Gigerenzer скачать в хорошем качестве

#92 How to Make Decision Under Uncertainty, with Gerd Gigerenzer

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch! www.pymc-labs.io/ My Intuitive Bayes Online Courses: www.intuitivebayes.com/ 1:1 Mentorship with me: topmate.io/alex_andorra I love Bayesian modeling. Not only because it allows me to model interesting phenomena and learn about the world I live in. But because it’s part of a broader epistemological framework that confronts me with deep questions — how do you make decisions under uncertainty? How do you communicate risk and uncertainty? What does being rational even mean? Thankfully, Gerd Gigerenzer is there to help us navigate these fascinating topics. Gerd is the Director of the Harding Center for Risk Literacy of the University of Potsdam, Germany. Also Director emeritus at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development, he is a former Professor of Psychology at the University of Chicago and Distinguished Visiting Professor at the School of Law of the University of Virginia. Gerd has written numerous awarded articles and books, including Risk Savvy, Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart, Rationality for Mortals, and How to Stay Smart in a Smart World. As you’ll hear, Gerd has trained U.S. federal judges, German physicians, and top managers to make better decisions under uncertainty. But Gerd is also a banjo player, has won a medal in Judo, and loves scuba diving, skiing, and, above all, reading. Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at bababrinkman.com/ ! Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible! Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Alex Jones, Gregorio Aguilar, Matt Rosinski, Bart Trudeau and Luis Fonseca. Visit www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;) Timestamps 00:00:00 Episode starts 00:03:50 Gerd's background 00:10:50 Role of heuristics in decision making 00:19:57 Bayes rule is a rule that is reasonable to apply... 00:29:36 How do you do that with the professionals you've collaborated with? 00:40:35 Statistical literacy is one the most important topics... 00:53:14 How did you handle priors and the challenges regarding... 01:07:24 Why make something more difficult when you don't have to? 01:16:36 First Try a simple heuristc, that means... 01:21:40 If you had unlimited time and resources, which problem would you try to solve? Links from the show: Gerd’s website: www.mpib-berlin.mpg.de/staff/gerd-gigerenzer Do children have Bayesian intuitions: psycnet.apa.org/doiLanding?doi=10…1037%2Fxge0000979 What are natural frequencies: www.bmj.com/content/343/bmj.d6386 HIV screening: helping clinicians make sense of test results to patients: www.bmj.com/content/347/bmj.f5151 Teaching Bayesian Reasoning in Less Than Two Hours: www.apa.org/pubs/journals/releases/xge-1303380.pdf How to Stay Smart in a Smart World – Why Human Intelligence Still Beats Algorithms: www.amazon.com/How-Stay-Smart-Wo…nce/dp/0262046954 Gut Feelings – The Intelligence of the Unconscious: www.amazon.com/Gut-Feelings-Inte…zer/dp/0143113763 Better Doctors, Better Patients, Better Decisions: www.amazon.com/Better-Doctors-Pa…ing/dp/026251852X As a bonus, Gerd playing the banjo:    • Видео