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In this episode, Nik Bhatia breaks down the macroeconomic forces driving Bitcoin above $116,000, including a broad decline in interest rates, softening U.S. labor market data, and rising expectations for Fed rate cuts. He walks through updated CPI figures, ISM services and manufacturing signals, and why the Fed is likely to cut another 75bps even without a formal recession. Nik also examines the Treasury yield curve’s parallel shift, bond market dynamics, and the strategic reliance on Treasury bills. The discussion turns to gold’s breakout and global monetary shifts, including China and Russia’s move away from the U.S. dollar. The episode wraps with MVRV signals and what current realized price data tells us about Bitcoin’s bull market trajectory. 📚 Bitcoin Age is here, order yours today: https://a.co/d/5gau08H 📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. 🔓 The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by Unchained, the leader in Bitcoin financial services. Unchained empowers you to take full control of your Bitcoin with a collaborative multisig vault, where you hold two of three keys, and benefit from a Bitcoin security partner. Purchase Bitcoin directly into your cold storage vault and eliminate exchange risks with Unchained's Trading Desk. Unchained also offers the best IRA product in the industry, allowing you to easily roll over old 401(k)s or IRAs into Bitcoin while keeping control of your keys. Don’t pay more taxes than you have to. Talk to us today. Visit unchained.com/tbl and use the code TBL10 for a 10% credit towards your first year's account fees. 📡 Blockstream delivers cutting-edge Bitcoin infrastructure. Discover the top-rated Blockstream Jade hardware wallet for secure offline storage, and explore the Blockstream Satellite for a seamless offline Bitcoin node experience — all available at the Blockstream Store. Visit: https://store.blockstream.com/discoun... for 10% off entire order. 🏡 Arch Lending is the Bitcoin-native solution for unlocking liquidity without selling your Bitcoin. Secure a loan using your Bitcoin as collateral, with zero rehypothecation and institutional-grade custody. Whether you're buying a home or investing in your business, Arch Lending helps you access capital while staying long BTC. Learn more at: archlending.com ▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube. 📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe 🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform. 📱 Follow TBL on X: / thebitcoinlayer 📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial 🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch ⛓️ ₿lock Height 914307 ⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: thebitcoinlayer@zbd.gg Nik Bhatia's Twitter: / timevalueofbtc Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: / matthewrball Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt Lead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB ❗ The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice. Chapters: 00:22 Global Macro Update & Fed Rate Cuts Preview 01:41 Market Expectations for Future Fed Cuts 03:37 Why the Fed Will Keep Cutting 04:01 Deep Dive: Repo Market and Funding Conditions 07:57 Labor Market Weakness Drives Policy 11:03 Unemployment Rises, Payroll Data in Question 13:16 Fed Mandate: Inflation vs. Employment 15:24 ISM Data: Gauging the Economy’s Pulse 18:04 Outlook: Risk of Recession or Continued Growth? 21:41 Service Sector Stays Strong, Manufacturing Lags 24:45 Yield Curve Insights & Treasury Market Commentary 28:34 Liquidity Conditions and Their Impact 32:06 Gold’s Surge and Monetary Paradigm Shift 34:42 Bitcoin: Market Cycle & Price Analysis 37:25 Closing Thoughts and Future Outlook