AI Is Real—But Is the ROI? Tom Martin on Earnings Signals, CapEx, and Market Valuations скачать в хорошем качестве

AI Is Real—But Is the ROI? Tom Martin on Earnings Signals, CapEx, and Market Valuations

In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Tom Martin, Senior Portfolio Manager at Globalt Investments. Recorded 2/18/26. We dig into what’s driving markets in early 2026—why the S&P has gone “flat at the highs,” what elevated valuations mean in a screen-based, highly connected economy, and how AI CapEx is shifting the conversation from hype to ROI. Tom also shares how an active manager navigates a highly concentrated benchmark, what he looks for in earnings to validate secular themes, and why real assets (including gold) and supply-chain security are back in focus. We close with Tom’s perspective on international equities after a long base-building phase—and why the U.S. dollar may be the swing factor. ⏰ Timestamps 0:00 Flat markets, high valuations, and what’s different this cycle 0:40 Episode intro + guest background 2:24 Why leadership shifted: growth/tech → churn under the surface 5:12 The valuation question: what metrics matter and how extreme is “extreme”? 8:40 AI capex + earnings season: what we learned about usage, demand, and ROI 12:12 Concentrated benchmarks: managing Mag 7 risk in the S&P 500 and Russell 1000 Growth 17:24 Tom’s process: macro inputs, proprietary allocation, and fundamentals first 21:33 Supply chains, tariffs, and the return of “physical” scarcity (rare earths, resources) 24:12 Gold in a portfolio: store of value, low correlation, and consolidation risk 28:22 International equities: base-building, policy shifts, and the USD wildcard 32:06 Wrap-up + key takeaways 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/fre... 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/rea... 🎯 Upgrade your market awareness with Seeking Alpha Premium https://marketmisbehavior.com/seeking... 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.b... 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook:   / marketmisbehavior   👉 Follow Dave on Instagram:   / marketmisbehavior   The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice. Some of the links in this description and in the video may be affiliate links, which means you pay nothing more and it helps me to make Market Misbehavior awesome! As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. For full disclaimer, please see our website: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/dis.... * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *