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In this episode of Excess Returns, we dive deep into the world of macroeconomics with Bob Elliott of Unlimited Funds. We explore a wide range of topics, including inflation, the Federal Reserve's policies, and the overall state of the economy. Bob shares his insights on how market price targets can be evaluated from a fundamental perspective and discusses the role of gold in a diversified portfolio. We also touch on the complexities of investing in hedge funds and the impact of fiscal policies on market dynamics. 0:00 - Introduction 1:38 - Overview of Current Inflation Dynamics 4:05 - The Role of Oil Prices and Supply Chain Issues in Inflation 7:24 - Housing Component of Inflation 9:53 - Federal Reserve's Policy and Economic Conditions 12:21 - Central Banks' Decision-Making Process 14:16 - Potential Economic Impact of Fed Cuts 17:26 - Income-Driven vs. Debt-Driven Economic Cycles 19:49 - Current Labor Market Conditions 22:10 - Slow Decay of the Economy Due to High Interest Rates 24:08 - Regulatory Changes Post-GFC and Their Impact 26:26 - Government Debt and Its Implications 30:04 - Impact of Elections on the Economy and Markets 32:35 - Probabilistic Framework for Analyzing Market Outcomes 37:50 - Analyzing S&P 500 Earnings Growth Projections 43:01 - Reflection on 2024 Market Performance 46:41 - The Role of Gold in Investment Portfolios 50:11 - Diversifying with Gold, Commodities, and Alpha 52:24 - Net Attribution in Hedge Fund Performance FIND OUT MORE ABOUT UNLIMITED FUNDS https://www.unlimitedfunds.com/ SEE LATEST EPISODES OF EXCESS RETURNS https://www.validea.com/excess-return... FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA https://www.validea.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FOLLOW JACK Twitter: / practicalquant LinkedIn: / jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: / jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: / jcarbonneau