Building a Prediction Market: From Theory to Implementation (Presented at CTU Prague) скачать в хорошем качестве

Building a Prediction Market: From Theory to Implementation (Presented at CTU Prague)

Dive into the world of decentralized prediction markets! This talk covers how blockchain technology enables platforms like Polymarket to turn collective belief into real-time probability forecasts. We explore the history, core mechanics (like Yes/No shares and AMMs), economic theory (EMH, Wisdom of the Crowds), and the future impact of AI agents on forecasting. 👉 To learn everything about building on Ethereum, go to https://speedrunethereum.com/ ------ 0:00 - Introduction to Prediction Markets & The Core Concept 0:02:43 - Presentation Agenda 0:03:36 - Live Demo: Trading on Poly Market (Mechanics of Yes/No Shares) 0:08:05 - Key Market Features: End Date, Binary Structure, and Payout 0:10:32 - History: From Iowa Markets (1988) to Decentralized Platforms 0:12:13 - Major Players: Centralized vs. Decentralized 0:13:03 - Prediction Markets vs. Betting Markets 0:14:23 - Why Build Prediction Markets on the Blockchain? 0:15:16 - The Theory Behind Prediction Markets: Beliefs and Incentives 0:17:01 - Theoretical Foundation 1: Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) 0:19:23 - Theoretical Foundation 2: Wisdom of the Crowds 0:20:47 - Theoretical Foundation 3: Bayesian Updating 0:21:40 - Audience Question: Does Price Anchor the Crowd? 0:24:59 - Defining a Clear Question & Different Types of Markets 0:28:49 - Final Considerations: How to Build a Prediction Market (Setup) 0:32:32 - Implementation: Token Contracts & Locking Liquidity 0:35:57 - Market Maker Function (AMM) Explained 0:38:20 - Resolution Mechanisms: Human in the Loop vs. Price Oracles 0:41:40 - Market Maker Algorithms: LMSR vs. Fixed Product Market Maker 0:46:16 - Summary and Key Takeaways 0:49:12 - Q&A: Market Maker Profit, Betting vs. Prediction 0:53:23 - The Future: The Impact of AI Agents ------