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Economy Watch - May 2022

Economy Watch provides an in-depth review of salient developments in India’s macroeconomy and economic policy in a global context. Key highlights for May 2022 include: In April 2022, PMI indicated a strong expansion in manufacturing and services with their respective levels at 54.7 and 57.9. This was accompanied by rising inflationary pressures. IIP posted a growth of 1.9% in March 2022, marginally improving from 1.5% in February 2022. In FY22, led by a favourable base effect, IIP showed a strong growth of 11.3% as compared to a contraction of (-)8.4% in FY21. CPI inflation increased for the seventh successive month to a 95-month high of 7.8% in April 2022 from 7.0% in March 2022 led by higher food and fuel based inflation. WPI inflation surged to a historic high of 15.1% in April 2022 from 14.5% in March 2022, led by inflationary pressures stemming from higher global crude and primary commodity prices. Owing to continued high inflation, the RBI increased the repo rate by 40 basis points to 4.4% in May 2022 after retaining the repo rate at 4.0% since May 2020. According to the Ministry of Finance, Center’s gross tax revenues (GTR) grew by 33.5% in FY22 after a subdued growth of 0.8% in FY21 and a contraction of (-)3.4% in FY20. During April-February FY22, Center’s total expenditure stood at 83.4% of the RE as compared to the corresponding average ratio at 88.9% during FY16 to FY20. Despite a significant shortfall in Center’s disinvestment receipts, the fiscal deficit target of 6.9% of GDP for FY22 may be achieved owing to a strong performance of GTR. In April 2022, merchandise exports growth was at a four-month high of 30.7%. Merchandise imports also showed a strong growth of 31.0% during the month. FPIs registered net outflows for the sixth consecutive month at US$(-)5.3 billion while net FDI inflows fell to US$2.7 billion in March 2022. Global crude price remained elevated at US$103.4/bbl. in April 2022 although relatively lower than US$112.4/bbl. in March 2022. Global coal price increased to a historic high of US$302/mt. in April 2022. The ADB has projected developing Asia to grow by 5.2% in 2022 with India’s FY23 growth projected at 7.5%. Discover more at https://www.ey.com/en_in/tax/economy-... #EYEconomyWatch