Tanya Rogers - Chaos and intermittent instability in ecological systems скачать в хорошем качестве

Tanya Rogers - Chaos and intermittent instability in ecological systems

Theoretical Ecology Seminar from the IITE (https://iite.info) by Tanya Rogers, Recorded 17th Oct 2023. Abstract: Chaotic dynamics are thought to be rare in natural populations, but this may be due to methodological and data limitations, rather than the inherent stability of ecosystems. Following extensive simulation testing, we applied multiple chaos detection methods to a global database of 172 population time series and found evidence for chaos in greater than 30%. Chaos prevalence and Lyapunov exponents displayed patterns related to taxonomic group, generation time, and body mass. We then explored how chaotic dynamics and temporal patterns in local instability varied geographically and at different taxonomic resolutions using a compilation of plankton time series from 17 lakes and 4 marine sites. Overall, the results demonstrate that chaos is not rare in natural populations, indicating that there may be intrinsic limits to ecological forecasting and cautioning against the use of steady-state approaches to conservation and management. Our results also suggest that prediction accuracy, sensitivity to change, and management efficacy may be greater at certain times of year and that prediction may be more feasible for taxonomic aggregates.