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On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Michael Kao, former hedge fund manager turned private investor & Alexander Stahel, Founder & CIO at Burggraben Holding AG join the show for a discussion on the current state of global macro & how those current macro factors are impacting energy markets. Turning bearish on oil in late 2022, Michael & Alex were able to sidestep the current downward price action experienced in 2023. Expecting macro headwinds and a less bullish setup in the supply & demand fundamentals, Michael & Alex walk through what the oil bulls got wrong & what to expect in the second half of 2023. Michael also shares his framework for the U.S dollar wrecking ball, which seems to be claiming its most recent victims over in Asia, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Michael: / urbankaoboy Follow Alexander: / burggrabenh Follow Jack Farley on Twitter / jackfarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter / forwardguidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter / blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timecodes: 00:00 Introduction 06:37 Why The Oil Bulls Were Wrong In 2023 13:47 Did Russian Sanctions Actually Impact Oil Supply? 23:43 Forecasting Oil Prices 31:05 European Gas Prices 33:37 The U.S Dollar Wrecking Ball 38:41 Lessons From The Asian Financial Crisis 41:34 Chinese Oil Demand 01:01:33 Why We're Not In An Oil Bull Market 01:17:23 Oil Has Further Downside Risk 01:24:13 Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.