Dr. Richard Peterson from MarketPsych скачать в хорошем качестве

Dr. Richard Peterson from MarketPsych

🎙️ Financial H.E.A.T Podcast Episode #45 📈 Topic: Join us for a dip into market psych with our guest Dr. Richard Peterson, CEO. 🎤 Guest: Dr. Richard Peterson https://www.marketpsych.com/home Check out our Income Blast ETF lineup https://www.incomeblastetfs.com/ 👥 Hosts: Matthew Tuttle | Jeremy Vreeland | Patrick Neville 00:01 - 01:13 Market Overview and Momentum Stocks: Matthew Tuttle discusses recent market volatility, focusing on momentum stocks and debasement trade (gold, crypto corrections). Pullbacks may be buying opportunities, but caution is needed. Jeremy Vreeland notes a bull channel with a broadening pattern, advising nimbleness. 01:13 - 03:51 Trump Trade and Quantum Investments: Patrick Neville and Matthew discuss the Trump trade and Trump's quantum comments. Matthew favors CCCX, a quantum SPAC with limited downside. Trade pops in themes like rare earths, quantum for short-term gains, hold for long-term exposure. 03:51 - 05:18 Guest Intro and Market Psychology: Patrick introduces Dr. Richard Peterson (Market Psych), who analyzes asset price perceptions using news/social media data since 1998 to predict bubble tops (e.g., dot-com, housing). 05:18 - 07:56 Social Media and News Data for Predictions: Matthew questions data use, noting failed buzz ETFs. Richard explains overreaction (AI/quantum volatility) vs. underreaction (steady earnings). Positive sentiment across many companies outperforms; hyped stocks (e.g., D-Wave) mean-revert. 07:56 - 10:27 Social Media Chatter and Topping Signals: High chatter on stocks like D-Wave signals mean-reversion. Price-only talk (e.g., "buy the dip") indicates tops. Focus on accounting sentiment vs. speculation for sustainability. 10:27 - 13:16 Liquidity Shocks and Capitulation: Liquidity shocks (e.g., Trump tariffs) signal tops. Richard: Fear with price drops predicts bounces; optimism during drops leads to further declines. No modeling of life-savings loss stories. Price action with sentiment is key. 13:16 - 15:24 Unusual Trades, LSE, and Data Products: Matthew suggests analyzing unusual options for insider signals. Richard discusses LSE sales role, Yahoo Finance, and iPhone Stocks app NLP. Text-based analysis is preferred over voice for reliability. 15:24 - 18:51 Theme Identification and Real-Time Data: Richard’s AI identifies themes (e.g., tariffs impacting Rolex, Lockheed) across 28 languages. Data updates minutely, averaged for noise. Sentiment leads price; bubble references at multi-year highs since June. 18:51 - 22:50 Macro Picture, Tariffs, Narratives: Sentiment drop is short-term negative, but macro positive (spending). Tariffs study: Companies mentioning tariffs underperformed (down 6%) vs. non-mentioners (up 12%). Bubble talk may not crash market like dot-com. 22:50 - 26:10 Earnings Transcripts and CEO Sentiment: Text analysis: CEO optimism predicts 3-month price drift. Companies adapt to AI scrutiny, reducing alpha. Combative CEO-analyst interactions signal underperformance. 26:10 - 28:12 Smart Voices and Portfolio Strategies: Matthew tracks smart Twitter/Discord users for themes. Richard: Pension fund’s top-forecaster portfolio yielded 100-150 bps alpha but closed. Value is modest (2% yearly); avoid overfitting. 28:12 - 30:11 Relief Rallies and Psychology Patterns: Prices rise before sentiment at bottoms (relief rallies). Sentiment falls first at tops. Jeremy: Sentiment with price action key; humans excel at chart patterns but err. 30:11 - 33:45 Investor Identity and Mental Breakdowns: Richard: Build identity by assessing strengths/weaknesses, interests (e.g., shorting liars). Breakdowns from instability (sleep, stress) lead to bad decisions. Stable lifestyle helps. 33:45 - 35:58 Asset Classes, Sentiment, Robotics: Sentiment impacts precious metals, financials, tech, utilities. Robotics most optimistic last two years. Attention/price spikes predict short momentum, then rollovers. 35:58 - 41:12 Beliefs, Misconceptions, Opportunities: Take profits when confident. Richard: Markets complex, not simple. Destroy misconception: Short-term trading suits few; focus on pre-institutional opportunities. Sentiment adds modest alpha; early entries win big. 41:12 - 44:07 Repurchase Effect and Long-Term Holding: Avoid repurchase bias: Buy above sell price (outperforms); avoid below. Hold transformative themes (e.g., quantum) through drops. Jeremy: Markets irrational longer than solvency. 44:07 - 47:04 Bitcoin Sentiment and Institutionalization: Bitcoin pre-iBit limited; post-iBit institutionalized with leverage/futures diluting scarcity. Matthew: iBit enables access. Richard: Digital assets like gold ETFs needed. 47:04 - 50:00 Closing Remarks and Contact: Richard stresses discipline, knowing weaknesses. Promote MarketPsych.com for institutional tools. Casual location chat; sign-off with thanks, subscription reminder.