There's a Reason Nobody Sees the Collapse Coming — It Was Proven Mathematically in 1984 скачать в хорошем качестве

There's a Reason Nobody Sees the Collapse Coming — It Was Proven Mathematically in 1984

In 1984, a Yale sociologist named Charles Perrow published a proof that changed everything we thought we knew about safety. His conclusion was simple and devastating: in tightly coupled, complex systems, catastrophic failure is not a risk to be managed. It is a mathematical certainty built into the architecture itself. He called these events "normal accidents." Two years later, Chernobyl proved him right. This documentary traces three layers of blindness that prevent you from seeing collapse before it arrives. The first is organizational. Using the minute-by-minute timeline of the Three Mile Island disaster, we show how trained professionals made rational decisions with lying instruments, and how the system was designed to guarantee they would fail. The second layer is mathematical. In 1963, Benoit Mandelbrot proved that the Gaussian bell curve, the foundation of every risk model in modern finance, underestimates extreme events by factors of thousands to millions. The field ignored him for forty years. The third layer is cognitive. Nassim Taleb's Black Swan framework and Kuran and Sunstein's availability cascades reveal why the absence of catastrophe is routinely mistaken for the presence of safety, and why the people who warn are systematically destroyed. We follow David X. Li, the quiet statistician whose Gaussian copula formula was used to price sixty-two trillion dollars in credit default swaps before the 2008 crash. We follow Brooksley Born, the CFTC chair who tried to regulate derivatives and was crushed by Greenspan, Rubin, and Summers. We follow Raghuram Rajan, who warned at Jackson Hole in 2005 and was called a Luddite by Larry Summers. Every warning was correct. Every warning was ignored. The same flawed mathematics is running every risk model in the world right now. This is not history. This is a diagnosis. Every claim in this video is grounded in published research, verified data, and the words of the people who were there. Sources include Perrow's "Normal Accidents" (1984), the Kemeny Commission Report (1979), Mandelbrot's "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices" (1963), Taleb's "The Black Swan" (2007), Kuran and Sunstein's "Availability Cascades and Risk Regulation" (1999), the PBS Frontline investigation "The Warning," and Diane Vaughan's "The Challenger Launch Decision" (1996). #NormalAccidents #SystemicRisk #BlackSwan #CharlesPerrow #NassimTaleb #ThreeMileIsland #GaussianCopula #2008FinancialCrisis #RiskManagement #TightCoupling #ComplexSystems #BrooksleyBorn #BenoitMandelbrot #ValueAtRisk #TailRisk #AvailabilityCascade #SystemFailure #Documentary #CreditDefaultSwaps #DavidLi