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Wagner's Mutiny - what it means for Putin's Russia (and Coups 101)

Sponsored by Private Internet Access: https://www.piavpn.com/Perun The Wagner mutiny of late June is likely one of the more dramatic events of the Russo-Ukrainian war in 2023, and one that caught many observers and the international audience off guard. Despite being closely watched by people around the world - much about the mutiny remains unknown - from its true purpose to the details of how and why it seemed to suddenly end. In this episode I look at what we know so far, ask what prospects the attempt had for success, what observations we can tentatively make, and what the impacts going forward might be. Patreon:   / perunau   Caveats & Comments: As noted in the video - I don't know the details of what just happened (and likely neither do you) and so the analysis and timeline included here is necessarily based on the best information available to me at time of recording. Future revisions will likely be necessar All other normal caveats (from information quality to 'this is not financial advice' to non-reliance apply as always Relevant reading & sources: Jonathan M Powell & Clayton L Thyne - Journal of Peace Research - Global instances of coups from 1950 to 2010: A new dataset http://www.uky.edu/~clthyn2/powell-th... Prigozhin charged with mutiny (TASS) https://tass.com/russia/1637475 Peskov denying responsibility for Wagner in Africa https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/0... Putin backing MoD on Wagner contracts https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/... Reporting on Surovikin https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6... Zolotov on Rosgvardia getting heavy https://meduza.io/en/news/2023/06/27/... Reporting on Wagner vs the VKS https://www.popularmechanics.com/mili... https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe... On the response to Wagner troops   / 1674163772364128258   Putin blasts Wagner as traitors https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl... Bulletin of Atomic science on the Wagner nuclear risk https://thebulletin.org/2023/06/what-... Reporting on Prigozhin speaking https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ru... Included tweet by Tatarigami (details cut off by cropping)   / 1673416906299043846   The many Coup accusations of Belarus https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe... https://www.dw.com/en/belarus-lukashe... Footage of Wagner in Rostov-on-Don   / 1672424964086169600   Rumour of early warning of the plot https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/28/wo... Rusian propagandist on flexible legal norms   / 1673113539509092356v   NATO statement on Belarus and Wagner https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6... Included Anatol Lieven article https://www.theguardian.com/commentis... As normal - my policy is not to link directly to Telegram channels belonging to groups like Wagner or Russian military bloggers as these often contain extremist or prohibited content Flight tracker of Putin's jet   / 1   Prigozhin on defending Belgorod https://www.euronews.com/2023/06/03/w.... Reporting on the Wagner taking a senior officer captive https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukrain... I also extend my thanks to all those on twitter whose content is included here A special thanks to Tex of BPL for his help hunting down some relevant data. Timestamps: 00:00:00 — The Wagner Mutiny 00:01:56 — What Am I Talking About 00:04:16 — Rumours & Speculation 00:04:58 — Coups 101 00:10:39 — Rules For A Good One 00:17:11 — The Russian Attempt 00:31:02 — The Days After 00:33:03 — Could It Have Worked 00:36:38 — Conspiracy Theories 00:39:47 — Key Observations 00:47:20 — The Impact Going Forward? 01:04:57 — Conclusions 01:06:15 — Channel Update