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Technology Trends: 2026 and beyond

Dave Berkus and David Friedman co-host this TCA Crossroads episode focused on investment trends for 2026 and beyond, framed around Friedman’s annual “skate to where the puck is going” outlook. Technology Trends 2026 and beyond. Friedman introduces a new investor paradigm built around a four-quadrant “Quad Map” that categorizes opportunities by market maturity and speed of value capture. He emphasizes that traditional angel structures (SAFE notes, convertible debt, equity) are no longer sufficient, noting the rise of hybrid deal structures, private debt, revenue-share, licensing, and engineered returns. The discussion highlights how exit timelines are lengthening, new younger investors want faster and more predictable returns, and how deal structure is now a primary tool for managing risk and time to liquidity. The bulk of the episode walks through ten major investment themes mapped across the quadrants, including AI agents and workflow automation, energy grid software, nuclear-adjacent technologies, precision medicine infrastructure, advanced materials, industrial AI and robotics, cybersecurity, climate adaptation, defense/dual-use tech, and engineered IRR deals. Friedman provides real startup examples—some from TCA’s pipeline—to illustrate each category and explains where real monetization and exits are likely to occur. Berkus reinforces the importance of this framework, praising its practicality and strategic value, noting that it helps investors distinguish between “better mousetraps” and truly transformative innovation. The episode closes with a call for investors to balance portfolios across multiple risk profiles and timelines, and for founders to better position their companies based on market timing and deal structure rather than just technology alone.