Weekly Market Commentary (2/2) | Strong Productivity, Sticky Inflation Signals & Resilient Consumers скачать в хорошем качестве

Weekly Market Commentary (2/2) | Strong Productivity, Sticky Inflation Signals & Resilient Consumers

This week’s Market Note with Alex Varner, Head of Research covers: • Fed Policy & Rates Outlook: The FOMC held rates steady as expected, with markets continuing to price two cuts later this year. A potential leadership transition at the Fed adds another layer to the policy backdrop. • Productivity & Growth Signals: Q3 productivity remained exceptionally strong, marking one of the best readings outside of pandemic distortions and reinforcing the case for structurally higher output, (potentially supported by AI adoption). • Inflation Watch – PPI & Core PCE Risk: Producer prices surprised to the upside, driven largely by services, raising expectations for a firmer Core PCE reading ahead and complicating the inflation narrative. • Business Spending & Trade: Durable goods and core capital goods posted continued gains, signaling steady business investment, while the trade deficit widened amid shifting import and export dynamics. • Consumer Sentiment vs. Reality: Consumer confidence fell to decade-low levels, yet spending, wages, household net worth, and cash balances remain strong, highlighting a persistent gap between how consumers feel and how they behave. • What to Watch This Week: JOLTS, ADP payrolls, jobless claims, and (potentially) non-farm payrolls as markets assess labor market normalization and policy timing. Click here to read this week’s full Weekly Market Note: https://www.mainmgt.com/wp/wp-content...