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Bitcoin has entered a new institutional super cycle where sustained ETF demand, not the old four-year halving rhythm, will ultimately drive prices far beyond past psychological limits. Matt Hougan explains that the original $200,000 Bitcoin price target was built on a clear institutional bull thesis: regulatory clarity and large-scale institutional adoption were expected to push prices beyond $100,000 toward the next major psychological barrier. In hindsight, $100,000 proved to be a far stronger behavioural “sell wall” than anticipated, as many investors exited early to front-run the traditional four-year cycle. This selling pressure pinned prices near that level for longer than expected, but Hougan believes this is a delay, not a failure of the thesis, and that Bitcoin will eventually move decisively beyond it. He argues that what truly differentiates the current environment is sustained ETF-driven demand. Institutions are already buying more than 100% of new Bitcoin supply, and he expects this to continue for many years. Drawing parallels to gold, Hougan suggests that once natural sellers are exhausted, Bitcoin’s price could move rapidly and non-linearly higher. In his view, the next major crypto cycle is not the old four-year halving cycle, but a longer five-to-ten-year institutional cycle in which Bitcoin progressively closes the gap with gold, making even very high long-term price targets plausible. Hougan also challenges the foundations of the four-year cycle itself, arguing that its historical drivers have weakened or reversed. Halving removes less marginal supply each time, interest rate dynamics now point toward easing rather than tightening, and systemic blowup risks have declined in a more regulated, ETF-based market. At the same time, ETF adoption naturally accelerates over time as advisory platforms open access and investors gradually scale into positions. Combined with a global liquidity backdrop that favours monetary easing, he sees Bitcoin in a “heads we win, tails we win” scenario where institutional demand overwhelms legacy cycle dynamics and keeps the long-term trend firmly upward. Credits: Bankless 10 Crypto Predictions for 2026: $1M BTC, Wall Street Onchain & ETF Takeover • 10 Crypto Predictions for 2026: $1M BTC, W... “This video uses AI-generated voice for narration.” This is not to be considered investment advice. You should always speak to a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision. All statements in this Video, other than historical facts, are forward-looking statements. These may include expectations about Bitcoin's future value and adoption rate; Gold's future value; Silver's future value; US deficit projections; currency values; cryptocurrency adoption rates; money supply projections; future energy demand; future inflation rates; mining stocks' future value; future market trends; and other future events. Such statements are speculative, based on assumptions that may prove inaccurate, and subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. #Bitcoin #cryptocurrency #Investing #Cryptonews #bitcoinprediction #altcoins #ethereum