7-Sigma Shock: Is This the Start of an S&P Crash? скачать в хорошем качестве

7-Sigma Shock: Is This the Start of an S&P Crash?

A rare seven-sigma down day in the S&P 500 put the market’s “immune system” on full display. I unpack why that kind of move is so unusual, the signals that flashed beforehand (positioning extremes, an S&P–VIX correlation break, and rising single-name vol despite a calm index), and how China’s rare-earth curbs plus tariff rhetoric became the match in a dry forest. I also map the knock-on stress in private credit, Tricolor/First Brands, BDCs, and junk spreads and what it means for cross-asset risk. From there, I lay out a tactical roadmap: the levels that matter if rhetoric persists (a path toward ~6,229 and even the 200-DMA gap from June) versus the V-bottom setup if a bargain is struck. I show how I hedge these regimes with rolling VIX convexity and why “trading the chop” is the right posture while headlines fly. You’ll see the quick sigma tool I built to size shocks in real time and how I translate macro warnings into portfolio actions. Finally, I zoom back out to the AI cycle. Dylan Patel’s “inverted economics” (infra before apps) and Sam Altman’s “capability overhang” both point to real, constrained demand—compute, power, and materials (rare earths) are the bottlenecks, not hype. I explain why that keeps capex justified, how the next wave shifts to NPUs/on-device inference and embodiment, and why the true TAM is labor. Plus, I connect the debasement trade—Bitcoin and gold leadership, expanding institutional access—to the same macro undercurrents driving AI investment. Timestamps: (00:00–06:46) Market turbulence and rare earth threat: China curbs rare earth exports, Trump threatens 100% tariffs, revealing the critical dependency for AI data center buildout and military applications (06:46–09:39) Market immune system stress: Factor deleveraging, hedge fund liquidation, Goldman Sachs hedge fund index carnage, and VIX-S&P correlation breakdown signaling vulnerability (09:39–18:45) Private credit warning signs: Tricolor and First Brands bankruptcies expose subprime/private debt stress; BDC index collapse and credit spread widening suggest systematic deleveraging underway (18:45–27:33) China-US negotiations and rare earth stakes: Commerce department's September 29th export rule escalation prompted China's rare earth response; TikTok deal and Trump-Xi meeting possibility suggest negotiation window remains open (27:33–39:22) AI buildout intact—Dylan Patel and Sam Altman interviews: Capability overhang, models advancing faster than infrastructure, compute demand growing 2x Moore's Law, edge computing (NPUs) as next frontier (39:22–48:56) Labor automation TAM and software disruption: AI entering the $50 trillion labor market, startups bidding on job listings at AI wages, traditional SaaS under existential threat (48:56–51:11) Debasement trade goes mainstream: Gold and Bitcoin top-performing assets of 2025, Morgan Stanley opens crypto fund access, Luxembourg sovereign wealth fund allocates to Bitcoin