Arctic Nor'easter Snow Targeting Southeast Jersey скачать в хорошем качестве

Arctic Nor'easter Snow Targeting Southeast Jersey

Bobby Martich of EPAWA Weather Consulting (   / @epawallc  ) laid out some great upper level research and analysis today which includes behavior of main players/features (trough (N stream energy), S stream energy, Leading system and kicker. I encourage you to check out his social pages and YouTube channel to see his analysis of basically why this system cannot come W to the point of a major snowstorm NW of I-95. Could it get some light snow NW of I-95? Maybe, but this thing is really targeting SENJ, especially coastal SENJ especially with the trough not expected to swing negative in time. Models continue to do the windshield wiper effect but none of them show major hits NW of I-95. The European ensembles are the most enthused which typically are the best data available from this range. Coastal Flooding is a very real concern. A powerful nor’easter low will be at least off the coast of OBX sending wind and water into the Jersey shore. The highest tide of concern is Saturday morning around 8am with a second high tide of concern around Saturday evening at 730-8pm. Anything from high-end of minor to low-end of moderate coastal flooding is possible from wind-driven storm surge, swell and a full moon enhancing astronomical tides. Some mitigating factors of coastal flooding include wind angle and the fact that there will be no rain draining into the back bays, creeks and estuaries. Any precip that falls will be in the form of snow due to below freezing temperatures at all levels. We will continue to analyze data through about 1pm tomorrow (Thursday) before issuing a general idea map of impacts (no snow amounts yet). On Friday we will likely issue a snow map with amounts as a first call (assuming storm still showing). On Saturday we will update that call heading into live storm observations Saturday night. Be safe! JC