Oil Curves, Open Source & Autonomy (e2533) скачать в хорошем качестве

Oil Curves, Open Source & Autonomy (e2533)

SHOWNOTES A fast tour across energy, technology history, and healthcare—then a spirited debate on Tesla’s path: robotaxis or humanoid robots. Plus: where oil and gas balances sit now, what built Web 2.0, and why some healthcare names look interesting on cash flow. [00:00] Intro Welcome to Telltales with Mike, Jason, and Hunt, setting up a deep dive into energy, technology, and healthcare with the companion Cash Flow Memo. Quick reminder: this conversation is for informational purposes only. [00:00] Disclaimer Standard investment disclaimer on doing your own work and limitations of the information shared. [00:00] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/Demand (Exhibit C) Hunt frames oil as a macro story: a cordial Trump–Putin meeting likely won’t yield a Ukraine ceasefire, keeping sanctions risk—and prices—elevated. Saudi output is marked up, Russia down; spare capacity sits near 3 mb/d. OPEC’s demand growth looks optimistic vs. the memo’s ~0.5 mb/d step-up, and the curve has flattened with less backwardation. Base case: WTI hovering in the low-to-mid $60s for now. [02:49] Exhibit B: U.S. Natural Gas Supply/Demand (Exhibit B) Gas is “in a swoon”: 2026 pricing hangs near ~$4 while the prompt month slides toward ~$3, as dry gas production ticks from ~106 to ~108 bcf/d. Associated gas from the Permian surprises to the upside; Gulf Coast hub pricing has even averaged under $1 at times, signaling localized oversupply. Expectations of lower Permian activity didn’t dent gas as much as hoped. [04:17] Exhibit A: U.S. Government Finances (Exhibit A) Deficit glidepath discussed: ~$1.9T this fiscal year toward ~$1.5T next year, aided by tariff/“excise & other” revenues and some spending flattening. Debt held by the public sits ~102% of GDP vs. ~81% pre-COVID (2019); bending that ratio down would be a major achievement. Musk’s provocative view on trimming the deficit by ~$1T is cited directionally. [06:28] Agenda & Segue [06:45] Software History: Web 2.0 & the LAMP Stack Jason tracks the move from Web 1.0 to user-generated Web 2.0: blogs, wikis, YouTube, MySpace/Facebook. Google’s PageRank shift—links and probability (Markov chains) over keyword counts—reshaped discovery. The LAMP stack (Linux, Apache, MySQL, PHP) plus permissive OSS licensing let startups ship dynamic apps cheaply and consistently. Proprietary stacks (e.g., .NET) faced friction from licensing and per-core pricing, nudging adoption toward open source. [16:22] Healthcare News & Stock Updates (pp. 15, 19) A surprise FDA leadership twist gets a mention. Harrow’s earnings show an inflection toward profitability: early data points suggest Vivi prescriptions outpacing Miebo among adopters, and another franchise growing +60% YoY with focus on retina practices. GLP-1 pills disappoint at Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. Vertex research results were mixed, but the core CF franchise underpins valuation comfort. Lantheus draws lessons on management change, capital allocation, and now screens cheap (7–8× FCF) with potential strategic interest. [22:01] Robots vs. Robotaxis: The Tesla Debate (p. 1) Is Tesla’s trillion-plus valuation driven more by robotaxis or humanoid robots? Jason sees robotaxis arriving sooner; Mike argues humanoids may be closer than consensus. Training data is a bottleneck for general-purpose robots; roads have clearer rules than “the world.” If Tesla can deliver ~$0.25/mile robotaxi costs, mass adoption could crush car ownership economics. Musk’s claim that Tesla could surpass Apple’s value is weighed against timelines: it likely takes a decade—and a lot of autonomy deployed—to get there. Waymo may be the other credible FSD player, but Tesla’s commercialization path looks stronger after shifting from rules-based to deep learning. [33:13] Wrap & Tease Thanks for listening—grab the Cash Flow Memo for full exhibits, charts, and the 80-company update. If you enjoyed this episode, subscribe and share it with a friend who follows energy, tech, or healthcare. This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future.