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If you watched part one, you know the government just handed the property market a loaded weapon. By raising the Home Guarantee Scheme price caps to $950,000 in Victoria and $1.5 million in New South Wales, policymakers have effectively created an artificial floor under key segments of the market. But here’s the trap most investors are falling into in February 2026: They’re applying the “buy under the cap” strategy in the wrong cities. While many are still fighting over scraps in Perth and Brisbane — markets that have already surged over the past three years — smart money has quietly shifted sideways. It’s targeting the two cities the media spent two years bashing: • Melbourne • Hobart Here’s why. In these markets, the new price caps aren’t just a safety net. They’re rocket fuel for fundamentally undervalued assets. In this breakdown, we unpack: • The two-speed property economy in 2026 • Why affordable homes are outperforming luxury stock • Why Melbourne is still below its 2022 peak • Why Hobart’s vacancy crisis creates asymmetric upside • How to position just under the $950K cap • Specific suburbs where the compression is already forming This is about asymmetric risk: Limited downside. Massive policy-driven upside. Melbourne Plays Under $950K 1️⃣ Reservoir The Northcote ripple is here. Big blocks, express trains, young families moving north. With a median just over $1M, buying strategically under the cap gives you positioning before the wider market catches on. 2️⃣ Frankston Affordability wins in 2026. Bayside. Beach. University. Hospital. Still trading at a discount to Melbourne’s eastern blue chips — with clear headroom under the cap. The Contrarian Play: Hobart After the 2023–24 correction, Hobart now has some of the tightest vacancy rates in the country. With regional caps covering most of the market, government-backed demand now sits under almost every house. Standout: Warrane Gritty. Gentrifying. Under $700K. 15 minutes to the CBD, flat land, solid yields — and positioned near higher-priced neighbours like Howrah and Mornington. You’re getting paid to wait for the next growth cycle. 2026 Strategy Summary Don’t fight the Reserve Bank. Don’t fight policy demand. If loans are guaranteed to $950K, own quality assets just under that ceiling — in cities that haven’t already run hard. That’s where compression happens. That’s where upside builds. Stop chasing late-cycle Perth. Look to Melbourne. Look to Hobart. Buy under the cap. Let policy do the heavy lifting. Disclaimer: The information provided in this video is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial, investment, or legal advice. Property values, growth forecasts, vacancy rates, yields, and market conditions may change, and individual circumstances vary. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed professional before making any property investment decisions. PropSpotter and the creator do not guarantee returns, and viewers are responsible for their own investment choices. For help identifying properties under the new price caps and building a 2026 acquisition strategy: 👉 Visit: www.propspotter.com.au Or book an obligation-free strategy call via the website. STAY CONNECTED: 📩 hello@propspotter.com.au 📞 (02) 9188 8876 📍 Suite 24/6 Meridian Place, Bella Vista NSW 2153 🕘 Mon–Fri: 9AM–6PM AEST 🌐 https://propspotter.com.au FIND US HERE LinkedIn: / propspotterau Facebook: / propspotter Instagram: / propspotterau YouTube: / @propspotter Subscribe and hit the bell to get weekly data-backed property analysis and early signals on Australia’s rising growth corridors. ⏱️ Chapters 00:00 – The government just raised price caps 00:17 – The investor trap in 2026 00:29 – Why Perth & Brisbane may be near peak 00:54 – Why Melbourne & Hobart are the smart money plays 01:11 – Two-speed property market explained 01:29 – Melbourne vs Perth peak comparison 01:52 – Asymmetric risk opportunity 02:00 – Melbourne distortion & Metro Tunnel impact 02:14 – Suburb 1: Reservoir 02:48 – Suburb 2: Frankston 03:23 – Contrarian play: Hobart 03:46 – Hobart suburb pick: Warrane 04:16 – Comparing neighbouring Hobart suburbs 04:24 – 2026 strategy summary 05:06 – Book a call CTA #MelbourneProperty #HobartProperty #PropertyMarket2026 #HomeGuaranteeScheme #PropertyInvestmentAustralia #UnderTheCap #RealEstateStrategy #PropSpotter #MarketUpdate