🎙️ Why BJP Always Wins? Real Story Behind скачать в хорошем качестве

🎙️ Why BJP Always Wins? Real Story Behind

🎙️ Podcast Episode: “Why BJP Always Wins? Real Story Behind Congress Loss” 📊 Featuring: Political Science Expert Venkat Mohan Sir 🎧 Platform: UPSC Radio Podcast 🔍 Episode Highlights: 📈 Deep dive into the statistical analysis of the 2019 Indian General Elections. 🧠 Expert insights from Venkat Mohan Sir, decoding data-driven patterns in Indian elections. 📑 Discussion on the 2023 report by Sabyasachi Das (Ashoka University) — a controversial academic paper that exposed: Statistical irregularities and data discrepancies in the 2019 results. Unusual BJP success rate in “close contests”, indicating a Density Discontinuity. A historically rare P-value of 0.03, suggesting possible manipulation. ⚠️ Correlation between voter roll deletions and areas with high Muslim voter share. 🧾 Comparison of Uttar Pradesh’s 2019 election data with non-democracies like Russia and Uganda — Curtosis value of 30.8 (statistically abnormal in democratic systems). 🧩 Insights into “decentralized rigging” methods such as: Voter list manipulation Counting process irregularities Observer system loopholes 🎙️ In-depth discussion on electoral transparency, democracy, and data accountability in India. 🕒 Full Episode Breakdown (Timestamps & Key Insights): • [0:00] Introduction — About UPSC Radio Podcast & Venkat Mohan Sir (Political Science Expert) • [0:35] 2019 Election irregularities — Unusual probability (0.03% vs 97%) in close contests • [1:10] Overview of Sabyasachi Das Report (Ashoka University, 2023) — Statistical evidence of discrepancies • [1:50] “Provisional vs Final Voting” — Explaining the huge vote data mismatch • [2:30] Correlation between vote mismatch & BJP’s success rate • [3:15] BJP’s non-random victories in close contests — Statistical anomaly • [4:00] Density Discontinuity explained — BJP’s sudden advantage pattern • [4:45] Historical P-value (0.03) — Rare in Indian electoral history since 1977 • [5:30] Visual analysis — Comparing 2019 & 2014 election data graphs • [6:00] BJP’s wins in tight races — 41 out of 59 contests under 0.05% margin • [6:30] BJP winning 70–75% of tight constituencies — impossible by random chance • [7:00] Methodology — Logical & statistical analysis behind manipulation hypothesis • [7:45] Testing “Effective Campaigning” hypothesis with National Election Survey (NES) • [8:30] Result — Campaigning didn’t explain BJP’s close contest wins • [9:00] Separating national factors (like strikes) from local irregularities • [10:00] Decentralized malpractice — Manipulation by local-level officials, not central EC • [11:00] Focus on Uttar Pradesh 2019 — Booth-level data analysis • [12:00] Vote share surge for BJP where turnout 800 voters per booth • [13:00] Global comparison — U.P. 2019 worse than Russia & Uganda! • [14:00] Kurtosis Value 30.8 — Compared to 5 in democracies, 10 in Russia • [15:00] Data Sources — Public datasets: Election Results, NES, EVM turnout, Observers data • [17:00] Forms of manipulation — Registration Deletion & Turnout Manipulation • [17:30] Electoral Growth Reduction — High BJP wins where voter lists shrank • [19:00] Targeted deletions — 6% decline in Muslim-majority areas vs. 2% elsewhere • [21:00] Mechanism — Decentralized Rigging by lower officials • [22:00] EVM Turnout Mismatch — Higher mismatch, higher BJP victory margin • [24:00] Political silence — Why leaders protest only when losing • [26:00] “Something is Fishy” — Clear evidence of mismatch from 2019 to 2024 • [27:00] Why Das’s report gained attention only after 2023 • [30:00] Fake Additions Theory — Reserve votes hypothesis by Venkat Mohan Sir • [33:00] Deletions & Reserve Votes — Proof that EVMs aren’t converting votes, but data is manipulated • [34:00] Growing discrepancies — Electoral system “under assault” by 2024 • [36:00] Pliable Counting Observers — Third major statistical irregularity • [37:00] Observer correlation — IAS vs State Service, BJP-ruled vs Non-BJP states • [39:00] Final Conclusion — Combined irregularities (Deletion, Mismatch, Observers) = Circumstantial Evidence of manipulation 🧠 What You’ll Learn: How statistical models reveal hidden election irregularities Why the 2019 results broke historical probability patterns How “Density Discontinuity” and “P-value” expose anomalies What the UP 2019 data reveals about democratic integrity Real meaning behind “fake votes” and “decentralized rigging” #bjp #congress #elections2025 #upscradio #VenkatMohan #fakevotes #ElectionPodcast #indianpolitics #ashokauniversity #SabyasachiDas #ElectionData #PoliticalAnalysis #Democracy #upresults