Trump Threatens 100% Tariffs After Carney Signs Beijing Deal | Dollar at Risk скачать в хорошем качестве

Trump Threatens 100% Tariffs After Carney Signs Beijing Deal | Dollar at Risk

On January 16th, 2026, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney signed a preliminary trade agreement with China establishing $6.6 billion in immediate trade restoration. The agreement reduces Chinese EV tariffs from 100% to 6.1%, establishes a 49,000-unit annual quota, and cuts Canadian canola tariffs from 84% to 15%. Eight days later, President Trump threatened 100% tariffs on all Canadian goods if Canada becomes a "drop-off port for China." The agreement includes unprecedented security cooperation between a Five Eyes intelligence member and China, covering narcotics trafficking, cybercrime, and transnational crime. According to Global Affairs Canada, the framework targets $178 billion in bilateral trade by 2030—a 50% increase from current $130.9 billion. The timing reveals strategic calculation. By establishing activated alternatives 165 days before the mandatory July 1st USMCA review, Canada enters negotiations with demonstrated options beyond exclusive U.S. dependence. During 2017-2020 USMCA renegotiation, Canada lacked comparable alternatives. At Davos, Carney declared this "a rupture, not a transition," while Trump responded: "Canada lives because of the United States." This analysis examines three probability-weighted scenarios: (1) Gradual transition toward multipolar framework (55-60% probability), following Nixon's 1972 China opening pattern of incremental 17-year restructuring, (2) Sudden shift if USMCA collapses (25-30%), similar to Brexit's forced realignment creating rapid Chinese investment surge, (3) Managed great power coordination (10-15%), modeled on 1985 Plaza Accord requiring cooperation currently absent. Key indicators include March 1st Chinese tariff implementation on $4 billion canola exports, Canadian dollar exchange rate as market assessment of collapse risk, Mexican government signals about its own China strategy, and July 1st USMCA review discussions revealing which trajectory unfolds. Wild cards: U.S.-China Taiwan crisis forcing immediate Canadian alignment choice, Canadian federal election potentially reversing agreement, major Chinese economic crisis decreasing partnership value, or EU announcing similar China partnership transforming from isolated hedging to broader allied rebellion against U.S. economic coercion. Sources: Global Affairs Canada, Statistics Canada, Al Jazeera, Congressional Research Service, Bank for International Settlements, World Economic Forum transcripts, financial press currency swap reporting. For extended analysis including monthly indicator tracking and historical precedent deep-dives, visit blueocean.news/canada-china-usmca-trump-tariffs #Canada #China #Trump #USMCA #TradeWar #FiveEyes #DollarReserve #Geopolitics #Carney #XiJinping