DEBATE: Is AGI Really Decades Away? | Ex-MIRI Researcher Tsvi Benson-Tilsen vs. Liron Shapira скачать в хорошем качестве

DEBATE: Is AGI Really Decades Away? | Ex-MIRI Researcher Tsvi Benson-Tilsen vs. Liron Shapira

Sparks fly in the finale of my series with ex-MIRI researcher Tsvi Benson-Tilsen as we debate his AGI timelines. Tsvi is a champion of using germline engineering to create smarter humans who can solve AI alignment. I support the approach, even though I'm skeptical it can gain much traction before AGI arrives. Watch my earlier episodes with Tsvi: Human Germline Engineering (Part 1):    • Former MIRI Researcher Solving AI Alignmen...   MIRI's Alignment Research (Part 2):    • Why AI Alignment Is 0% Solved — Ex-MIRI Re...   Learn more about Tsvi’s organization, the Berkeley Genomics Project: https://berkeleygenomics.org 0:00 Debate Preview 0:57 Tsvi’s AGI Timeline Prediction 3:03 The Least Impressive Task AI Cannot Do In 2 years 6:13 Proposed Task: Solve Cantor's Theorem From Scratch 8:20 AI Has Limitations Related to Sample Complexity 11:41 We Need Clear Goalposts for Better AGI Predictions 13:19 Counterargument: LLMs May Not Be a Path to AGI 16:01 Is Tsvi Setting a High Bar for Progress Towards AGI? 19:17 AI Models Are Missing A Spark of Creativity 28:17 Liron’s “Black Box” AGI Test 32:09 Are We Going to Enter an AI Winter? 35:09 Who Is Being Overconfident? 42:11 If AI Makes Progress on Benchmarks, Would Tsvi Shorten His Timeline? 50:34 Recap & Tsvi’s Research