The Investor's Dilemma: Ride The Bubble Or Seek Safety? | Peter St Onge скачать в хорошем качестве

The Investor's Dilemma: Ride The Bubble Or Seek Safety? | Peter St Onge

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com Suddenly signs of systemic stress are cropping up all around us. In the public debt markets, credit spreads are on the rise after years of dormancy. In the private credit markets, defaults and counter party risk concerns have moved to the forefront. Volatility has returned to the stock market as doubts of AI spending sustainability mount. And worldwide, suspicions of fiat currency debasement are going mainstream. Where is all this headed? To discuss, we're fortunate to welcome macro, markets and monetary analyst Peter St Onge to the program #aibubble #recession #economy 00:00 - Current assessment: we are mid-cycle, not late-cycle; liquidity indicators are “on fire” 03:22 - Three big positive drivers: Fed easing, ending QT, and a tsunami of foreign investment 04:02 - Saudi Arabia ups commitment to $1 trillion; total foreign pledges could hit $7-8 trillion 05:19 - AI capabilities growing 10× per year — far faster than the internet revolution 06:16 - Combined effect of Fed + foreign cash + AI = very strong growth story into 2026-2027 07:28 - Markets however are “catastrophic” the last two weeks — entirely a liquidity scare 09:13 - Everything (stocks, Bitcoin, gold) sold off together = pure Fed-driven move 10:12 - We are clearly in an AI bubble; valuations are worse than dot-com 10:44 - Bubbles last 5-6 years on average and end on liquidity, NOT on valuation 11:51 - Classic bubble pattern: when it finally pops it often ends higher than where you thought it was insane 13:35 - Economy should see meaningful tailwinds starting in 2026 from tax/refund changes & deregulation 15:27 - Deregulation so far disappointing vs. hopes, but still a huge improvement vs. Biden era 16:36 - 2026 midterms are the big wildcard — Republican hold = policies continue; Democrat win = gridlock 19:19 - AI spending boom is still very early — we haven’t even reached the “stupid college kid app” stage yet 22:16 - If AI implodes, comparable to 2001 dot-com crash — mild/shallow recession at worst 25:47 - Deportations & federal layoffs will mechanically lower reported GDP but make Americans richer 30:50 - The U.S. now has three economies: top 20% thriving, bottom 20% miserable, middle 60% squeezed 32:06 - Trump policies (tariffs, deportations, AI job shift) disproportionately help blue-collar workers 36:18 - Next 5-10 years likely good for blue collars, very bad for white collars → big societal angst coming 37:02 - New Fed chair: most candidates talk dovish but are actually hard-money loyalists 38:51 - Fed’s natural state is easy money; post-Biden inflation scare is fading → expect easing bias again 40:19 - Fiscal spending will keep getting worse — no natural predator in Washington 42:58 - Next recession will bring massive new spending; UBI odds ~80% and almost impossible to remove once in 45:14 - Long-term dollar debasement is the easiest prediction; question is only the speed 47:48 - Peter’s personal playbook: chase strong trends (currently AI), heavy hedge in gold + some Bitcoin 51:09 - Next big trends after AI: robotics (5-7 years out) then longevity/biotech (early 2030s) 58:42 - Over-regulation has shut regular investors out of the best private deals — proceeds go only to the rich _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter. We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such. We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance. IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities. Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance. Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC. Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.