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War, Oil Shocks & Mortgage Rates: How the Iran Conflict Impacts Buyers, Investors, and Inflation On the Money Matrix Podcast, host Mayer Dellal (founder of Mbanc) joins Jason Rod and Alan Hastings to discuss how the Israel-Iran-U.S. conflict is driving oil and bond yields higher and quickly pushing mortgage rates up, with the 10-year rising from about 3.96% to 4.25% and consumer rates increasing roughly 0.50%–0.75% in some buckets. They explain the Strait of Hormuz as a 21-mile chokepoint moving about 20% of the world’s oil and debate the purpose and consequences of the war, citing civilian casualties, U.S. service member losses, an estimated $11B first-week cost, and surging gas prices as inflation risks that may delay Fed rate cuts until July. They advise buyers and investors to use current seller panic to negotiate concessions, while most pure refinances may need to wait, with potential future rate relief if conditions stabilize. 0:00 Podcast Intro and Hosts 01:18 War Headlines and Market Shock 02:31 Oil and Mortgage Rates Spike 03:40 Why Iran and Proxies Matter 04:15 Strait of Hormuz Explained 06:33 Alan's Take on War Rationale 10:48 Human and Economic Costs 13:34 How Inflation Hits Consumers 15:33 Buyer Opportunity in Chaos 21:07 Locking Rates and Client Stories 23:01 Post War Rate Forecasts 24:52 Geopolitics and Timing the Market 27:05 Final Advice and Wrap Up