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The Union Cabinet’s historic decision on April 30, 2025, to include a caste census in the upcoming 2025 Census has sparked nationwide debate! This move, long demanded by opposition parties and regional leaders, could reshape India’s political, social, and economic landscape. From redrawing constituency boundaries to fueling demands for increased reservations and sub-categorization, the caste census is set to be a game-changer. But what drove this demand, and what happens now? Join us as we dive into the reasons, implications, and potential political firestorm awaiting India! Why the Demand for a Caste Census? Social Justice: Opposition parties like Congress, SP, RJD, and DMK, along with leaders like Rahul Gandhi and Nitish Kumar, have pushed for a caste census to map the socio-economic status of Other Backward Classes (OBCs), Scheduled Castes (SCs), and Scheduled Tribes (STs). With over 50% of India’s population estimated to be OBCs, precise data is critical for equitable welfare schemes and affirmative action. Outdated Data: The last comprehensive caste census was in 1931. The 2011 Socio-Economic and Caste Census (SECC) data was never fully released due to inaccuracies, leaving policy-making reliant on estimates. State-level surveys in Bihar (2023), Karnataka (2015), and Telangana highlight the need for standardized national data. Political Leverage: The opposition’s “Jitni Abadi, Utna Haq” (rights proportional to population) campaign aims to consolidate OBC and marginalized votes, challenging the BJP’s Hindutva narrative. The BJP, initially hesitant, now supports the census to counter opposition momentum and address allies like JD(U) and LJP. Constitutional Mandate: Article 340 calls for identifying backward classes, and Supreme Court rulings emphasize caste as a key criterion for reservations, necessitating accurate data to avoid arbitrary policies. What Happens Now After Approval? Census Execution (2025-2026): The 2025 Census, delayed since 2021 due to COVID-19, will begin next year and conclude by 2026. Caste enumeration will include OBCs and sub-sects alongside SCs and STs, potentially using digital tools like a mobile app, as stated by Union Home Minister Amit Shah. Data Collection Challenges: Enumerating thousands of castes and sub-castes across 1.46 billion people is complex. Lessons from Bihar’s 2023 survey, which used a standardized list of 214 castes, will guide the process to avoid errors like those in the 2011 SECC. Policy Implications: The data will inform targeted welfare schemes, education, and job reservations, addressing systemic inequalities. It will also support sub-categorization within OBCs, as recommended by the Justice Rohini Commission, to ensure equitable quota distribution. Impact on Key Areas: Constituency Boundaries (Delimitation): Post-Census, delimitation will redraw Lok Sabha and Assembly boundaries based on population data, as mandated by Articles 82 and 170. The freeze on seat numbers, set by the 1971 Census and extended to 2026, will end, potentially increasing seats to reflect India’s 1.5 billion population. Southern states fear losing seats due to lower population growth, while northern states like UP and Bihar may gain, intensifying regional tensions. An amendment to the 84th Constitutional Amendment may be needed for delimitation by 2029 elections. Women’s Reservation: The 128th Constitutional Amendment (2023) reserves 33% of seats for women in Parliament and Assemblies but awaits delimitation post-Census. The caste census could lead to demands for OBC and SC/ST quotas within this reservation, as pushed by Congress and SP leaders like Sonia Gandhi. Reservation Quotas and Sub-Categorization: The census will fuel demands to breach the Supreme Court’s 50% reservation cap, especially for OBCs, who may exceed 52% of the population per Mandal Commission estimates. Sub-categorization within OBCs, as implemented in Bihar for Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs), will address inequitable quota benefits, but could spark protests from dominant castes. Political Fallout: The BJP aims to consolidate Hindu unity and counter opposition narratives, but risks alienating upper-caste voters. The opposition sees this as a victory, potentially strengthening their OBC vote bank in upcoming Bihar and other assembly polls. The data could also shift focus from Hindutva to caste-based politics, reminiscent of the 1990s Mandal movement. Why It’s a Political Tinderbox: Social Tensions: Critics, including some RSS voices, warn that caste enumeration may deepen divisions and be exploited for vote-bank politics. Regional Divide: Southern states like Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, with better population control, oppose delimitation, fearing reduced parliamentary representation. #CasteCensus2025 #IndiaCensus #Delimitation #WomenReservation #OBCQuota