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#investorrelations

#investorrelations #capitalmarkets #corporatefinance #corporategovernance #corpgov #accountingandfinance #financialplanningandanalysis #financialprofessionals #investorrelationscareers #investorpresentation #earnings #earningscall #earningsreport #earningsannouncement #ceo #ceoadvisory #ceoadvice #ceoinsights #cfo #cfoadvisory #cfoadvice #cfoinsights #nyse #nasdaq #steverubis #mrinvestorrelations #betweentwoearningscalls #investmentbanking #venturecapital #privateequity #ipo #shareholders #boardofdirectors #shareholderengagement #equityresearch #equitymarkets #wallstreet #investorcalls #shareholdervalue #iro #earningsprep #strategicfinance #boardroomtrust #equitystory #CaptialAllocation #valuationpremium #careers #googlegemini #oracle $ORCL #financialpresentations #investorengagement 𝗕𝗲𝘁𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝗧𝘄𝗼 𝗘𝗮𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘀 𝘄/ 𝗠𝗿 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿 𝗥𝗲𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿 𝗥𝗲𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗖𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗦𝘁𝘂𝗱𝘆: 𝗢𝗿𝗮𝗰𝗹𝗲 (𝗢𝗥𝗖𝗟) In mid-December 2025, Oracle shares suffered their worst weekly drop in seven years, falling approximately 15% following its fiscal Q2 earnings. Despite reporting a staggering $523 billion in Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO), up 438% year-over-year. The key issue was management doubled CAPEX expectations from $25B to $50B, and failed to provide the data to illustrate such an epic change in expectations 𝗖𝗔𝗣𝗘𝗫 𝘃𝘀. 𝗖𝗮𝘀𝗵 𝗙𝗹𝗼𝘄 Typically, a 100% increase in CAPEX leads to a massive correlative jump in free cash flow. Instead, the 1 to 0.25 multiplier in F2Q26 led investors wonder might Oracle be overspending on unproven customers. In 2023, every $1 spent on CAPEX generated stable returns in high-margin database fees. In 2026, that same dollar is generating negative free cash flow ($-10B in Q2 alone), suggesting the cost of entry for AI infrastructure is currently outstripping immediate revenue. 𝗧𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗲 𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗿𝗻𝘀 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 & 𝗖𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝘁 𝗤𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆: A vast portion of Oracle's $523B backlog is tied to a single entity: OpenAI. Analysts are no longer asking if Oracle can build; they are asking if the AI sector can pay. By not diversifying the narrative beyond the $300B OpenAI "Stargate" project, IR left the stock vulnerable to an "AI Bubble" correction. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝗶𝗰𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗮𝗻 "𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗮𝘁𝗲" 𝗦𝗲𝘁𝗯𝗮𝗰𝗸: Silence following reports of Blue Owl Capital pulling out of a $10B deal due to "stricter debt terms" allowed a "financing in limbo" narrative to take hold. Though Blackstone was later discussed as a replacement, the delay signaled that even institutional lenders are becoming wary of the scale. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗗𝗲𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗶𝘁 (𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝗶𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 "𝗪𝗵𝘆"): Management failed to take a data-driven approach to justify the doubling of CAPEX. To illustrate the need for $50B, IR needed to provide metrics on AI queries, data flow, or gigaflops, et al. Without this "connective tissue," the massive spend feels like a speculative "Land Grab" rather than a calculated response to data volume. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝗰𝗮𝗹𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗱 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗻 Let us compare $ORCL and $MSFT to level set: FY26 Revenue Guidance: $MSFT is 4.4x larger than $ORCL FY26 CAPEX spend: $MSFT is 1.9x larger than $ORCL CAPEX-to-Revenue: $MSFT = 32% and $ORCL = 75% The 75% vividly illustrates the three key concerns above! 𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗟𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 The balance sheet matters even for high growth stories. An amazing backlog promise will not outweigh a significant CAPEX increase Clear metrics + Data will close the credibility gap associated with drastic expectation changes.