urbanEXODUS wildfire-pedestrian-vehicle coupled evacuation scenario скачать в хорошем качестве

urbanEXODUS wildfire-pedestrian-vehicle coupled evacuation scenario

urbanEXODUS, developed by FSEG of the University of Greenwich, is an advanced agent based model capable of simulating urban-scale evacuation. The software links, for the first time, urban-scale agent based pedestrian modelling with traffic and wildfire models. The software is capable of representing 1000’s of individual agents and vehicles stretching over many square kilometres interacting with wildfires and other hazards such as floods, earthquakes and chemical spills. urbanEXODUS can read street geometries from open source resources such as, Googlemaps and Open Street Maps. The software: • Links to disaster management systems to provide situational awareness information for the Common Operating Picture (COP) allowing incident managers to quickly assimilate evacuation information. • Can accept terrain information from and Digital Elevation Model Ordinance Survey (DEM OS) Terrain 50. This allows terrain information relating to gradients and surface type to be incorporated into the evacuation simulation with the simulated agents reacting appropriately to the terrain. • Couples with the open source, agent based road traffic simulation model SUMO (Simulation of Urban Mobility), developed by the Institute of Transportation Systems at the German Aerospace Centre. The simulated pedestrians within urbanEXODUS are aware of the vehicles and respond to vehicles and the vehicles are aware of the pedestrians and respond to the pedestrians. This enables realistic interactions between pedestrians and vehicles to be represented within the simulation environment. • Couples with wildfire models such as PHOENIX, FARSITE, PROMETHEUS, SPARKS AND WILDFIRE ANALYST. This enables the advancing fire front to impact the nature of the vehicle and pedestrian evacuation. Escape route for pedestrians and vehicles can become compromised by the advancing fire front making evacuation difficult or impossible. The video is a demonstration of the capabilities of urbanEXODUS loosely based on the tragic Black Saturday (7 Feb 2009) Murrindundi fire that devastated a small town in rural Victoria of approximately 500 people. In the actual tragic fire, there were 34 fatalities and almost 400 buildings destroyed. However, it must be emphasised that the evacuation simulation IS NOT AN ATTEMPT TO RECREATE this devastating incident. The wildfire simulation used in the evacuation analysis was produced by Dr Thomas Duff of Melbourne University using the PHOENIX wildfire simulation software. This fire is based on the Black Saturday fire, making use of actual map data from the region, prevailing weather conditions at the time of the fire, terrain fuel conditions and fire start location. However, all other parameters, including the size and distribution of the population are hypothetical and devised to demonstrate features of the software and modelling capabilities. Thus the evacuation simulation IS NOT A RECREATION of this tragic incident. The animation is produced by vrEXODUS based on urbanEXODUS output. The scenario in the video involves: • A population of 3633 agents and 1035 vehicles. 397 people evacuate on foot and 3236 in vehicles. • Occupant response times are set to between 1.0 hr and 1.5 hr after notification. This is intended to represent the time required to decide to evacuate and to prepare to evacuate once they have been advised (notified) to evacuate. • A range of notification times are explored, varying from 1.75 hr to 3.5 hr after the fire start time. Notification time is dependent on the time required by incident managers to decide that an evacuation is necessary and the time required to alert individuals within the population of the need to evacuate. Within the simulation, pedestrians attempt to shelter at the oval, a large cleared patch of land (indicated by the orange circle) while vehicles attempt to leave town travelling north on the C508 (cyan circle indicate vehicle target destination). According to the fire simulation, approximately 5 hours into the fire simulation the C508 becomes compromised by the fire forcing vehicles to divert back into town to seek shelter at the oval and the road leading to the oval becomes compromised by the fire at approximately 6 hour after fire ignition. The results in the simulation represent conditions with a notification time of 3.5 hr after the start of the fire simulation. The simulation results suggest that for this scenario there are 1461 (40%) fatalities, with 1350 (42%) fatalities located in 437 (42%) vehicles and 111 (28%) pedestrian fatalities. Some 211 (20%) vehicles are forced to redirect. Clearly, notifying the population of the need to evacuate 3.5 hour after the start of the fire is far too late. With a notification time of 1 hour 45 min there are zero fatalities while a notification time of 2 hours results in 21 fatalities. RED AREA: represents fire front and burnt area CARS and PEDESTRIANS: size of cars and pedestrians exagerated so that they can be easily seen.