Monte Carlo Simulation: Why Your Gut Feeling is a Trap скачать в хорошем качестве

Monte Carlo Simulation: Why Your Gut Feeling is a Trap

Is your business strategy built on a single "average" number? You might be strategically blind. 🛑 Most plans fail because they rely on perfect blueprints in an unpredictable world. In this video, we deconstruct the "Architect’s Gamble" and reveal why the average is a trap that hides catastrophic risks and rare opportunities. We explore the power of Monte Carlo Simulation, a digital oracle that lets you simulate thousands of possible futures. You’ll learn the "Two Flavors of Randomness" (RAND vs. RANDBETWEEN), the surprising truth of Triangular Distributions, and we deconstruct the famous Monty Hall Problem. Discover why "switching" isn't a 50/50 guess, but a strategically superior move based on new data. It’s time to stop betting the farm on gut feelings and start dancing with risk. 🚀 Chapters: 00:00 – The Architect’s Gamble 01:06 – What is Monte Carlo Simulation? 01:39 – Why the Average is a Trap 03:11 – The Library of Randomness: RAND vs. RANDBETWEEN 03:52 – The Monty Hall Problem: A Cognitive Trap 05:30 – The Mathematical Bridge: 1/3 vs. 2/3 06:20 – Analytical Intuition vs. Gut Feeling 📝 Transparency Note: This video was created by StudySimply using my personal university lecture notes. I use NotebookLM to synthesize complex mathematical risk analysis into conversational overviews, transforming abstract theory into clear, visual stories for students and pros. #MonteCarlo #DataScience #StudySimply #RiskManagement #MontyHall #BusinessStrategy #Analytics #NotebookLM