Howard Raiffa Session. Raimo P. Hämäläinen: Behavioral aspects of decision analysis скачать в хорошем качестве

Howard Raiffa Session. Raimo P. Hämäläinen: Behavioral aspects of decision analysis

Title: Behavioral aspects of decision analysis Abstract: Behavioral issues are always present when using modeling to support human problem solving and decision making. Behavioral effects can relate to the group interaction and communication, as well as to the possibility of procedural mistakes, cognitive biases and even to motivational issues. Decision analysis considers human behavior directly by modeling preferences and risk attitudes. There is also extensive literature on the biases that we can observe in human decision making. Yet, we still have important research challenges in learning how to take decision analysis into practice while incorporating behavioral aspects. This challenge was identified early by the pioneer of decision analysis, Professor Howard Raiffa. In this talk I will review recent advances in addressing behavioral aspects in decision analysis, negotiations, and in the process of systems-analytical problem solving in general. This theme is in the core of the emerging research area of behavioral operational research. Some cognitive biases can be mitigated but some are very persistent. Debiasing approaches are discussed and the emergence of the phenomenon of path dependence is demonstrated with the Even Swaps method, codeveloped by Howard Raiffa. Today, we need to pay increasing attention to behavioral aspects related to decision models, as they are being used extensively to tackle important problems like the climate change. MORE INFORMATION: https://sa2015.iiasa.ac.at/