Stagflation Risks Rise in 2026, and Why House Prices Could Flatline скачать в хорошем качестве

Stagflation Risks Rise in 2026, and Why House Prices Could Flatline

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has an Official Cash Rate (OCR) decision on February 18, 2026. It's largely expected there will be no change. But once the immediate news fades, a deeper, more persistent issue remains impossible to ignore: the outsized influence of Australian-owned banks in New Zealand. ANZ, ASB, BNZ, and Westpac dominate the mortgage market, exert significant sway over media narratives, political decisions, house prices, and the broader economy. With record profits in recent years, often in the billions, and early signs of fragile economic recovery ("green shoots") emerging amid lingering inflation pressures, a key question looms: Will these Aussie-owned banks continue pushing for ever-higher margins on supposedly "safe as houses" lending? Could this relentless profit chase contribute to a "Japanification" of New Zealand's housing market? Of will it cause prolonged stagnation, depressed activity, and even a drawn-out recession? Joining me for an in-depth discussion is Rupert Carlyon, Founder and Managing Director of Kōura Wealth, a respected voice on investment, KiwiSaver, and economic trends. Timestamps: 0:00 - Intro & OCR preview 2:45 - The dominance of Aussie banks in NZ 8:20 - Profit margins vs. economic recovery 15:10 - Japanification risks & housing market outlook 22:30 - Potential counter-forces & what to watch 30:00 - Rupert's insights & closing thoughts Bespoke KiwiSaver, fee-only financial advice, Bespoke Investment Portfolios - Want to learn more about working with Darcy Ungaro (financial adviser)? Book in a free 15-min discovery call: https://calendly.com/darcy-radicalinv... Sign up to the fortnightly newsletter: http://reporting.demand.co.nz/h/r/FBD... Sign up to Swyftx and get $20 worth of free Bitcoin: https://trade.swyftx.com/register/?re... Hatch: https://app.hatchinvest.nz/share/uqhc... Sharesies: https://sharesies.com/r/RRPR6X Revolut: https://revolut.ngih.net/c/4753264/17... This isn't investment advice, just an honest look at why the traditional income-focused retirement strategy might not always work in the new world.