24 - The Engine of Capitalism скачать в хорошем качестве

24 - The Engine of Capitalism

Optimism drives entrepreneurial action, innovation, and growth, but it also causes predictable failures. Kahneman analyzes optimism bias, illusion of control, and why we take excessive risks. You learn to balance ambition with realism. The chapter explores how optimism is essential for capitalism and progress. Without optimistic entrepreneurs willing to start businesses despite daunting statistics—most new businesses fail within five years—economic dynamism would stall. Optimism provides the courage to act in the face of uncertainty. However, this same optimism often leads to poor decisions and preventable failures. Kahneman presents research on the illusion of control—the tendency to overestimate one's influence over outcomes. Entrepreneurs typically believe their chances of success are much higher than base rates suggest. When asked about their probability of failure, they acknowledge that most businesses fail but insist their own business is different—they have better ideas, work harder, are smarter. This is partly the planning fallacy (inside view) and partly cognitive ease (their detailed plan feels right). The chapter introduces the concept of "premortem"—an organizational practice that counteracts excessive optimism. Before committing to a major decision, team members imagine that the project has failed spectacularly and write down reasons why it failed. This legitimizes dissent, surfaces concerns that people were hesitant to raise, and improves decision quality. The premortem leverages hindsight bias in reverse: by imagining failure as having already happened, people find it easier to identify potential problems. Kahneman notes the tension: optimism is necessary for action but harmful for accurate judgment. The solution is not to eliminate optimism—that would be paralyzing—but to recognize its influence. Organizations can benefit from optimistic implementers (who believe in the plan and execute energetically) while also employing realistic advisors (who challenge assumptions and plan for contingencies). The key is to have both perspectives in conversation, not letting either dominate completely.