Strike, Deterrence, or Deal? U.S. Options in the Iran-Israel Escalation скачать в хорошем качестве

Strike, Deterrence, or Deal? U.S. Options in the Iran-Israel Escalation

Featuring: Dr. Gawdat Bahgat, Dr. Kenneth Katzman, Dr. Yasmine Farouk, and Tim Constantine. As Iran and Israel engage in direct confrontation, the United States finds itself navigating a treacherous strategic crossroad. U.S. foreign policy options in the current conflict—between deterrence, de-escalation, and direct intervention—amid mounting regional and domestic pressures. President Donald Trump, in his second term, has expressed a strong desire to secure a new and better deal with Iran—one that could be framed as a legacy-defining achievement. However, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei continues to rule out restrictions on ballistic missile development or a cap on uranium enrichment, particularly after years of maximum pressure campaigns and unmet JCPOA promises. Meanwhile, Israel faces its own red lines. Having declared it will not allow Iran to reach nuclear breakout capability, Israel’s options are limited. Despite advanced cyber capabilities and covert operations, Israeli officials acknowledge that a comprehensive strike on Iran’s deeply buried nuclear facilities is not viable without U.S. air and logistical support. This dependence complicates Washington’s strategic calculus: direct involvement risks triggering a full-scale regional war, exposing U.S. bases across the GCC to Iranian missile attacks and escalation by Iran’s proxy networks. Yet remaining on the sidelines could embolden Tehran, undermine U.S. deterrence, and strain relations with both Israel and key Gulf allies. The panel will explore the strategic implications of U.S. involvement—or abstention—from this unfolding crisis. What would it mean for the American military presence in the Middle East if the U.S. chose to directly support Israeli operations? Could this conflict derail the U.S. strategic pivot to Asia and its rebalancing priorities? How would Gulf states interpret a U.S. decision to avoid confrontation or to take sides?