Strategic Risks & Energy Market Impacts of the Iran-Israel Conflict on the GCC Economies скачать в хорошем качестве

Strategic Risks & Energy Market Impacts of the Iran-Israel Conflict on the GCC Economies

Featuring: Rachel Ziemba, Alia Moubayed, Dr. Justin Dargin, and Dr. Harold York. The confrontation between Iran and Israel has introduced new volatility into global energy markets, with immediate repercussions for oil and gas supply chains, regional stability, and the economic outlook of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. Escalating tensions increase the likelihood of supply disruptions, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of global oil passes. Any disruption to maritime transit or infrastructure—whether through direct military strikes, cyberattacks, or proxy escalations—could lead to sharp spikes in oil and gas prices, strain global supply chains, and heighten inflationary pressures. GCC economies face both direct exposure to conflict spillovers and broader structural challenges. While high energy prices may result in short-term revenue gains for oil and gas exporters, these benefits are offset by increased geopolitical risk, investor uncertainty, and potential constraints on foreign direct investment. Qatar’s LNG exports, the UAE’s infrastructure security, and Saudi Arabia’s diversification strategies are all vulnerable to regional instability and reputational risk. In the longer term, persistent geopolitical instability could accelerate the global shift away from reliance on Middle Eastern hydrocarbons, prompting consumers and investors to diversify supply routes and invest more heavily in energy transition strategies. Additionally, prolonged conflict risks undermining confidence in the region’s role as a reliable energy supplier and economic hub. The cumulative effect may reconfigure global energy flows and weaken economic resilience across the GCC if not mitigated by coordinated risk management, diplomatic engagement, and strategic adaptation.